4.1 tracking 续跟（1 个）
| Case | Domain | 晚报 W1 | W2 | Δ% | 基线 mu/cv | RU 变化 | 晚报判定 |
|---|
| #338 | etsy.com | $3,813 | $7,183 | -46.9% | $996 / 0.41 | -15.6% | 回单延迟主导（tracking 续跟） |
etsy.com W1 后三日订单已入库但 commission 未到账（7/10 89单$5，7/11 264单$5.76，7/13 199单$14.79，7/14 25单$0.23）。gap 31.3pp 主要由回单滞后造成，非系统性异常。#338 tracking_case_dedup 归口，等 07-16/17 早报观察 T-3/T-4 回填。
4.2 已跟踪 case (tracking / known_cause 归口，共 29 个)
| Domain | Case | 状态 |
|---|
| etsy.com | #338 | tracking |
| jackery.com | #306 | known_cause |
| reserved.com | #333 | tracking |
| hollandandbarrett.com | #290 | known_cause |
| meta.com | #357 | tracking |
| remedymeds.com | #303 | known_cause |
| xfinity.com | #317 | tracking |
| saatva.com | #304 | known_cause |
| ugreen.com | #348 | known_cause |
| tractorsupply.com | #325 | tracking |
| puma.com | #308 | known_cause |
| barcelo.com | #277 | new (07-11) |
| joybuy.fr | #319 | tracking |
| glamuse.com | #326 | tracking |
| frostbuddy.com | #362 | known_cause |
| lidl.fr | #321 | known_cause |
| stanstedairport.com | #289 | known_cause |
| journaway.com | #366 | known_cause |
| hp.com | #323 | tracking |
| legalzoom.com | #296 | new (07-13) |
| theoutnet.com | #268 | new (07-11) |
| sharkninja.de | #244 | new (07-08) |
4.3 无 Hub 记录但降噪归入正常波动（33 个）
所有 33 个候选商家均归入 w2_spike_reversion 或 sparse_data_normal：
w2_spike_reversion（W2 处于 μ+2σ 脉冲高峰，W1 回归基线）：
natashadenona.com, nobltravel.com, kfzteile24.de, singlecare.com, o2online.de, drogariasaopaulo.com.br, francoisesaget.com, drogariaspacheco.com.br, birminghamairport.co.uk, dransay.com, electrolux.fr, engwe.com, etihad.com, foto-erhardt.de, birchlane.com, boc24.de, conrad.de, etam.com, freedom.com.au, holy.com, home-appliances.philips, hsn.com, jannowak.com, mixbook.com, zooplus.co.uk, banggood.com
sparse_data_normal（基线 <8 天有效数据）：
thewoodveneerhub.com, botanyfarms.com, tempur.com