FCB 人群包 100000404 · 效果回收报告

需求:支持对人群包用户开启 FCB(G1 静默用户用户级强开首页 CashBack)· 上线 2026-05-26

回收窗口 2026-05-27 ~ 2026-06-14(19 天) · 报告生成 2026-06-15 · 数据源 cp_dw(db35)

人群包 27,711 人 FCB 曝光 8,336 SP 1,355 严格归因佣金 $2,709 卸载无害
一句话结论:FCB 链路通、安全(不伤卸载),但 增量天花板已现、对大盘真实拉升 <1%、绝对收入小。反复触达的是同一批 ~1,300 个活跃转化用户,新增转化递减。

1. FCB 全链路漏斗(累计去重)

8,336
FCB 曝光用户
1,431
点击用户 · CTR 17.2%
1,415
激活成功 · 点击→激活 98.9%
1,355
SP 用户 · 曝光→SP 16.3%

FCB 口径 = type='CB' AND scene='FirstPage' AND extra.fcb_enabled='true',且用户在人群包内。其中约 89% 曝光发生在「FCB 关闭商家」上(用户级开关带来的增量)。

趋势观察:SP 用户从上线头 3 天的 748 → 19 天仅 1,355(+81%,时间却是 6 倍)。说明 FCB 反复触达同一批活跃用户,新增转化者递减,可挖掘空间趋于见顶。

2. 点击 FCB 后产生的订单与收入

CB 订单(bu=CP, is_cb_order=1),按订单 created_time 落在 2026-05-27 ~ 2026-06-14。

归因口径下单用户订单数GMV (USD)佣金 (USD)
① 足迹(点过 FCB 的人 · 任意商家)8242,000$177,804$5,987
② 严格(在看到 FCB 的商家上下单)407908$84,020$2,709
口径差别很重要:① 足迹包含这些用户在其它商家下的单(他们本来就会下),高估归因;② 严格只算「在看到 FCB 的那个商家上」的单,是更可信的 FCB 归因 —— 仅为足迹的 45%。即便严格口径,净增量仍需对照组 DiD(用户没有 FCB 也可能下单)。
严格口径 run-rate ≈ $143 佣金/天、$4,422 GMV/天 —— 绝对值偏小。

3. 卸载分析(重点:是否 FCB 直接造成)

3.1 人群包整体卸载(真卸载口径)

窗口卸载用户说明
5/27 – 6/018累计 ~36 人 / 19 天
= 人群包 0.13% · ~1.9 人/天
平稳无突增
6/02 – 6/0712
6/08 – 6/1416

3.2 ⭐ FCB「直接造成」的卸载

定义:FCB 曝光用户,在看到 FCB 后极短时间内卸载(最后一次 FCB 曝光 → 真卸载的时间差),且 FCB 是临门前的交互。

判定人数(全窗口)依据
≤ 5 分钟内卸载(极可能直接)1gap 法,6-13 人群快照
≤ 30 分钟内卸载(同会话)1同上
路径核实确认「干净的 FCB 直接卸载」1逐用户行为路径还原(见下)
路径核实(上线头 3 天 5 个 FCB 曝光卸载者逐一还原): 结论:FCB 直接造成的卸载 ≈ 1–2 人(占曝光 0.01–0.02%),可忽略。 真正风险不是 FCB,而是重度/老用户的全服务弹窗过载
口径限制(务必知悉):人群包快照保留期只剩 6-07~6-13,本次重定到 6-13 快照。卸载用户会从滚动 G1 人群中 churn 掉,晚定的快照会系统性少计早期卸载者 —— 故 3.2 的 gap 计数是下界,更可靠的是 3.2 路径核实(基于上线时人群)。

4. 对 AFF-SP 大盘的贡献(曝光 / 点击 / 订单 / 收入)

大盘口径 = rpt_sp_user_monetization_daily_performance_summary_d(AFF_SP_CPS_STORE / ALL / ALL)。窗口内日均:曝光 ~39,221 · 点击 ~21,850 · 订单 ~9,613。

指标足迹(高估)真实拉升(严谨)占大盘
曝光8,336(窗口)+172 用户~0.4% 日曝光
点击1,431(窗口)+226 用户~1.0% 日点击
订单2,000 单(窗口)908 单严格归因 ≈ 48 单/天~0.5% 日订单
收入(佣金)$5,987(窗口)$2,709 严格归因 ≈ $143/天绝对值小
「贡献占比」≠「提升」:大盘是去重用户数,FCB 曝光的人绝大多数本来就在大盘里(当天还有别的 service 触点),多弹 FCB 不会让大盘 +1。所以「足迹占比」会高估一个数量级。真实拉升 = 只因 FCB 才进入大盘漏斗的边际用户(在 SP 池内 + 当天无其它 service 触点)—— 曝光仅 +172、点击 +226,均 <1% 大盘
经验侧印证:大盘曝光/点击/订单上线前后基本持平,聚合层看不出可观测拉升。订单/收入的真实净增量同样需对照组 DiD 才能定论。

5. 统计口径说明

口径
人群包G1 汇总表 rpt_user_behavior_g1_hit_summary_d(pt=2026-06-13 快照)⋈ rpt_cp_usr_user_trace_infofirst_cb_click_time IS NOT NULL。L1-L4 按 hit_cnt×domain_cnt 派生。共 27,711 人。
FCB 曝光v_dwd_log_parse_extension_service_impress_ditype='CB' AND scene='FirstPage' AND get_json_object(extra,'$.fcb_enabled')='true'
点击 / 关闭点击:同上 click 表 FirstPage CB。FCB 弹窗交互(close/click):v_dwd_log_cp_click_cb_log_di(business='2', scene='FirstPage', action 字段;FCB 无 snooze 动作)。
激活成功dwd_log_event_outbound_result_det_dbusiness='2' AND outbound_state='1' AND NOT(reason_type='0' AND reason='1'),按 access_at 过滤(无 pt)。
SP 用户dws_log_sp_user_shopping_journey_detail_di(严格 SP 池 aff_id>0 AND cps_score>40)。
订单 / 收入dwd_trd_user_orders_dibu='CP' AND is_cb_order=1,⚠️ pt 分区不可用,必须用 created_time 过滤。严格归因 = 订单 root_domain = 该用户 FirstPage CB 点击的 sub_domain。
卸载(真卸载)v_dwd_log_parse_event_analytics_log_discene='uninstall_feedback_after' AND event_type='impress'(注意 event_type 小写)。FCB 直接卸载 = 上述 ⋈ FCB 曝光,且卸载时间 − 最近一次 FCB 曝光时间 ≤ 阈值。
大盘rpt_sp_user_monetization_daily_performance_summary_d(store_type='AFF_SP_CPS_STORE', platform='ALL', country='ALL')。真实拉升 = FCB 用户 ∩ SP 池 ∩ 当天无其它 service 触点。
三大口径限制:

6. SQL 附录

数据库:Metabase cp_dw (db=35)。所有 pt 为日期分区,必须带;created_time 用于订单表(pt 不可用)。

① 人群包(含 L1-L4 派生)
SELECT g.guid,
  CASE
    WHEN g.g1_hit_cnt_l30d >= 6 AND g.g1_hit_distinct_domain_cnt_l30d >= 3 THEN 'L4'
    WHEN g.g1_hit_cnt_l30d >= 2 AND g.g1_hit_distinct_domain_cnt_l30d >= 2 THEN 'L3'
    WHEN g.g1_hit_cnt_l30d >= 2 AND g.g1_hit_distinct_domain_cnt_l30d  = 1 THEN 'L2'
    WHEN g.g1_hit_cnt_l30d  = 1 AND g.g1_hit_distinct_domain_cnt_l30d  = 1 THEN 'L1'
    ELSE 'Other' END AS g1_level
FROM rpt_user_behavior_g1_hit_summary_d g
INNER JOIN rpt_cp_usr_user_trace_info t ON g.guid = t.guid
WHERE g.pt = '2026-06-13'
  AND t.first_cb_click_time IS NOT NULL;
② 全链路漏斗(曝光→点击→激活→SP,窗口去重)
SELECT
  COUNT(DISTINCT e.guid) AS fcb_impr_uv,
  COUNT(DISTINCT CASE WHEN c.guid IS NOT NULL THEN e.guid END) AS click_uv,
  COUNT(DISTINCT CASE WHEN c.guid IS NOT NULL AND ob.guid IS NOT NULL THEN e.guid END) AS activate_uv,
  COUNT(DISTINCT CASE WHEN c.guid IS NOT NULL AND ob.guid IS NOT NULL AND sp.guid IS NOT NULL THEN e.guid END) AS sp_uv
FROM (
  SELECT i.guid FROM (
    SELECT DISTINCT guid FROM v_dwd_log_parse_extension_service_impress_di
    WHERE pt BETWEEN '2026-05-27' AND '2026-06-14' AND type='CB' AND scene='FirstPage'
      AND get_json_object(extra,'$.fcb_enabled')='true'
  ) i
  INNER JOIN (
    SELECT g.guid FROM rpt_user_behavior_g1_hit_summary_d g
    INNER JOIN rpt_cp_usr_user_trace_info t ON g.guid=t.guid
    WHERE g.pt='2026-06-13' AND t.first_cb_click_time IS NOT NULL
  ) p ON p.guid=i.guid
) e
LEFT JOIN (
  SELECT DISTINCT guid FROM v_dwd_log_parse_extension_service_click_di
  WHERE pt BETWEEN '2026-05-27' AND '2026-06-14' AND type='CB' AND scene='FirstPage'
) c ON c.guid=e.guid
LEFT JOIN (
  SELECT DISTINCT client_id AS guid FROM dwd_log_event_outbound_result_det_d
  WHERE business='2' AND outbound_state='1'
    AND NOT (outbound_state_reason_type='0' AND outbound_state_reason='1')
    AND access_at >= '2026-05-27 00:00:00' AND access_at < '2026-06-15 00:00:00'
) ob ON ob.guid=e.guid
LEFT JOIN (
  SELECT DISTINCT guid FROM dws_log_sp_user_shopping_journey_detail_di
  WHERE pt BETWEEN '2026-05-27' AND '2026-06-14'
) sp ON sp.guid=e.guid;
③ 订单与收入(足迹 + 严格同商家)
-- 足迹:FCB 点击用户的所有 CB 订单(任意商家)
SELECT COUNT(DISTINCT o.guid) order_users, COUNT(1) orders,
       ROUND(SUM(o.sales),2) gmv, ROUND(SUM(o.commission),2) commission
FROM (
  SELECT guid, root_domain, sales, commission FROM dwd_trd_user_orders_di
  WHERE bu='CP' AND is_cb_order=1
    AND created_time >= '2026-05-27 00:00:00' AND created_time < '2026-06-15 00:00:00'
) o
INNER JOIN (
  SELECT DISTINCT cl.guid, cl.sub_domain FROM (
    SELECT DISTINCT guid, sub_domain FROM v_dwd_log_parse_extension_service_click_di
    WHERE pt BETWEEN '2026-05-27' AND '2026-06-14' AND type='CB' AND scene='FirstPage'
  ) cl
  INNER JOIN (
    SELECT g.guid FROM rpt_user_behavior_g1_hit_summary_d g
    INNER JOIN rpt_cp_usr_user_trace_info t ON g.guid=t.guid
    WHERE g.pt='2026-06-13' AND t.first_cb_click_time IS NOT NULL
  ) p ON p.guid=cl.guid
) fc ON fc.guid=o.guid
-- 严格同商家:上句末尾加  AND o.root_domain = fc.sub_domain
④ 卸载:整体(分块)+ FCB 直接(gap 法)
-- 4a. 人群包整体卸载(按分块跑,避免 19 天扫描超时)
SELECT COUNT(DISTINCT p.guid) AS uninstall_uv
FROM (
  SELECT DISTINCT client_id AS guid FROM v_dwd_log_parse_event_analytics_log_di
  WHERE pt BETWEEN '2026-05-27' AND '2026-06-01'
    AND scene='uninstall_feedback_after' AND event_type='impress'
) u
INNER JOIN (
  SELECT g.guid FROM rpt_user_behavior_g1_hit_summary_d g
  INNER JOIN rpt_cp_usr_user_trace_info t ON g.guid=t.guid
  WHERE g.pt='2026-06-13' AND t.first_cb_click_time IS NOT NULL
) p ON p.guid=u.guid;

-- 4b. FCB 直接卸载:卸载时间 − 最近一次 FCB 曝光时间 ≤ 阈值
SELECT COUNT(*) exposed_uninstallers,
  SUM(CASE WHEN min_gap_min <= 5  THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) le_5min,
  SUM(CASE WHEN min_gap_min <= 30 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) le_30min
FROM (
  SELECT u.guid, MIN((unix_timestamp(u.ut)-unix_timestamp(f.ft))/60) AS min_gap_min
  FROM (
    SELECT client_id AS guid, MIN(access_at) AS ut FROM v_dwd_log_parse_event_analytics_log_di
    WHERE pt BETWEEN '2026-05-27' AND '2026-06-01'
      AND scene='uninstall_feedback_after' AND event_type='impress' GROUP BY client_id
  ) u
  INNER JOIN (
    SELECT g.guid FROM rpt_user_behavior_g1_hit_summary_d g
    INNER JOIN rpt_cp_usr_user_trace_info t ON g.guid=t.guid
    WHERE g.pt='2026-06-13' AND t.first_cb_click_time IS NOT NULL
  ) p ON p.guid=u.guid
  INNER JOIN (
    SELECT guid, create_time AS ft FROM v_dwd_log_parse_extension_service_impress_di
    WHERE pt BETWEEN '2026-05-27' AND '2026-06-01' AND type='CB' AND scene='FirstPage'
      AND get_json_object(extra,'$.fcb_enabled')='true'
  ) f ON f.guid=u.guid AND f.ft <= u.ut
  GROUP BY u.guid
) z;
⑤ 单用户行为路径还原(判定 FCB 是否直接造成卸载)
-- 弹窗序列(impress 全类型)
SELECT create_time, type, scene, sub_domain, url
FROM v_dwd_log_parse_extension_service_impress_di
WHERE pt BETWEEN '<day>' AND '<day+1>' AND guid='<GUID>' ORDER BY create_time;
-- 动作流(含 view_cashback / snooze / report_an_issue / stand_down / uninstall_*)
SELECT access_at, event, scene, sub_domain
FROM v_dwd_log_parse_event_analytics_log_di
WHERE pt BETWEEN '<day>' AND '<day+1>' AND client_id='<GUID>' ORDER BY access_at;
⑥ 大盘日总量 + 真实拉升(边际用户)
-- 6a. 大盘 AFF-SP 日总量
SELECT date, SUM(service_impr_user_cnt) impr, SUM(service_click_user_cnt) click, SUM(order_user_cnt) ord
FROM rpt_sp_user_monetization_daily_performance_summary_d
WHERE date BETWEEN '2026-05-27' AND '2026-06-14'
  AND store_type='AFF_SP_CPS_STORE' AND platform='ALL' AND country='ALL'
GROUP BY date ORDER BY date;

-- 6b. 点击真实拉升 = FCB 点击用户 ∩ SP 池,且当天无其它 service 点击
SELECT COUNT(DISTINCT b.guid) fcb_clicker_in_sp_pool,
  COUNT(DISTINCT CASE WHEN oc.guid IS NULL THEN b.guid END) click_lift_upper
FROM (
  SELECT s.guid FROM (
    SELECT DISTINCT cl.guid FROM (
      SELECT DISTINCT guid FROM v_dwd_log_parse_extension_service_click_di
      WHERE pt BETWEEN '2026-05-27' AND '2026-06-14' AND type='CB' AND scene='FirstPage'
    ) cl
    INNER JOIN (SELECT g.guid FROM rpt_user_behavior_g1_hit_summary_d g
      INNER JOIN rpt_cp_usr_user_trace_info t ON g.guid=t.guid
      WHERE g.pt='2026-06-13' AND t.first_cb_click_time IS NOT NULL) p ON p.guid=cl.guid
  ) fcbc
  INNER JOIN (SELECT DISTINCT guid FROM dws_log_sp_user_shopping_journey_detail_di
    WHERE pt BETWEEN '2026-05-27' AND '2026-06-14'
      AND CAST(aff_id AS UNSIGNED)>0 AND cps_score>40) s ON s.guid=fcbc.guid
) b
LEFT JOIN (
  SELECT DISTINCT guid FROM v_dwd_log_parse_extension_service_click_di
  WHERE pt BETWEEN '2026-05-27' AND '2026-06-14' AND type IN ('AT','CB','CC','DD')
    AND NOT (type='CB' AND scene='FirstPage') AND scene NOT IN ('Store_Traffic','Vio_Injected')
) oc ON oc.guid=b.guid;
-- 曝光真实拉升:把 click 表换成 impress 表 + fcb_enabled 过滤,同结构
FCB 人群包 100000404 效果回收 · 数据 cp_dw(db35) · 窗口 2026-05-27~06-14 · 生成 2026-06-15
口径限制:人群快照重定 6-13(累计为下界)· 订单 created_time 截至 6-14(末尾延迟订单未齐)· 严格归因非因果,净增量待对照组 DiD。