在干净的同商家对照下(144 个两臂共同的 AT-off 商家,06-06~06-10):
建议:暂缓放量;订单 T+4 未跑满,最终收入定论于 ~06-14 用同口径重拉,但"头部高、尾部低、CB 被抢量"的结构性结论大概率不变。
| 队列 | 定义 | 06-06~06-10 人数 |
|---|---|---|
| 实验组 收到穿透弹窗 |
extension_service_impress:type='AT' + scene='Popup' + at_high_value_package_user='true' + style='6.30.10-2' + lever.at_popup='Off' |
592 |
| 对照组 未穿透/未曝光 |
不曝光日志 impress_other_log:action='notshow' + category='at_popup' + reason='AT Popup Lever Off',∩ 人群包 dws_dmp_guid_group_di(group_id=100000414) |
1277 |
at_high_value_package_user='true' 打在人群包用户的所有 AT 弹窗上(含 AT-on 商家的正常弹窗)。必须叠加 extra.lever.at_popup='Off' 才是"开关关着被强弹"的真穿透。不加则曝光从真穿透 690 虚高到 1224。extra.lever 自带当下开关状态,是判定穿透的权威字段,无需外部重建。(guid+商家+pt) 同日匹配,避免把后续 AT 正常开放日的成功误算为穿透。reason='AT Popup Lever Off' 本身即保证 lever-off,无 lever-on 污染(与实验组按标识识别不同)。abtest_group_id 与运行时 style 标识不完全一致(约 5% abtest=1 用户运行时收到实验 style)。对照组按你确认用 1277 全包,污染方向利于对照、使"为负"结论更稳。| 指标 | 数值 | 说明 |
|---|---|---|
| 穿透曝光用户数 | 690 | lever.at_popup='Off' 强弹 |
| 穿透点击用户数 | 472 | |
| CTR | 68.4% | 472/690 |
| 测券用户数 | 523 | 穿透商家·当天 |
| 测试成功用户数 | 168 | |
| 测试成功率 | 32.1% | 168/523(AT-off 商家券质量低) |
| 卸载用户数 | 3 | 0 因果,全部早于首次弹窗 |
| 卸载率 | ~0% | 且非真卸载(仅反馈页曝光) |
| 穿透商家 AT 订单 | 120 单 | sales $4,740.12 / 佣金 $132.56 |
两臂都覆盖的 144 个 AT-off 商家(实验 522 ∩ 对照 662)。分母=队列总人数(实验 592 / 对照 1277),指标限定在这 144 商家上。此口径商家与人群可比,是判断增量的依据。
| 环节 | 服务 | 实验组 (592) | 对照组 (1277) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 曝光 UV | AT 弹窗 | 385 | 327 ※ |
| CB | 323 | 622 | |
| 合计(去重) | 447 | 713 | |
| 点击 UV | AT | 267 | 265 |
| CB | 115 | 228 | |
| 合计(去重) | 299 | 390 | |
| CTR | AT | 69.4% | 81.0% |
| CB | 35.6% | 36.7% | |
| 合计 | 66.9% | 54.7% | |
| 订单 | AT | 131单 / $54.96 | 292单 / $162.70 |
| CB | 56单 / $22.84 | 131单 / $75.33 | |
| 合计 | 187单 / 67UV / $77.80 | 423单 / 151UV / $238.03 | |
| 人均订单 | 0.32 | 0.33 | |
| 人均收入 | $0.131 | $0.186 | |
※ 对照组 AT 曝光 327 ≠ 穿透:是这些商家 AT 被人工切回开的时段拿到的正常弹窗 + ~5% abtest/运行时不同步污染;lever-off 真穿透时刻对照≈0。
两臂各自在自己全部的 AT-off 商家集上统计(实验 522 个穿透商家 / 对照 662 个 leveroff 商家,仅重合 144)。覆盖全,但商家集与人数不同,只看各自盘子规模,不能直接判增量。
| 环节 | 服务 | 实验组 (592人/522商家) | 对照组 (1277人/662商家) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 曝光 UV | AT 弹窗 | 592 | 503 |
| CB | 402 | 899 | |
| 合计(去重) | 592 | 988 | |
| 点击 UV | AT | 443 | 401 |
| CB | 152 | 405 | |
| 合计(去重) | 465 | 626 | |
| CTR | AT | 74.8% | 79.7% |
| CB | 37.8% | 45.1% | |
| 合计 | 78.5% | 63.4% | |
| 订单 | AT | 171单 / $74.67 | 406单 / $285.81 |
| CB | 67单 / $33.02 | 205单 / $281.61 | |
| 合计 | 238单 / 96UV / $107.69 | 611单 / 256UV / $567.42 | |
| 人均订单 | 0.40 | 0.48 | |
| 人均收入 | $0.182 | $0.444 | |
lever.at_popup='Off':商家 AT 弹窗开关关闭、靠人群包功能强弹。对照组在同场景下得到 notshow(不弹)。reason='AT Popup Lever Off')。这是"有穿透 vs 无穿透"的反事实基准。COUNT(DISTINCT guid);合计 = AT∪CB 同一人只计一次。saved_amount>0 或 save_type∈(0,100))。dwd_trd_user_orders_di,AT 单 is_at_order=1 / CB 单 is_cb_order=1;收入 = SUM(commission);用 created_time 过滤(订单表无可用 pt 分区)。数据库 db17→实为 Metabase db35(StarRocks),JSON 用 get_json_object。以下为各环节核心 SQL(商家集限定用对应子查询 JOIN 或 IN 清单)。
-- 曝光(点击把 impress 换成 click 表即可) SELECT COUNT(DISTINCT guid) AS exposed_uv FROM v_dwd_log_parse_extension_service_impress_di WHERE pt BETWEEN '2026-06-06' AND '2026-06-10' AND type='AT' AND scene='Popup' AND get_json_object(extra,'$.at_high_value_package_user')='true' AND get_json_object(extra,'$.at_high_value_package_user_style')='6.30.10-2' AND get_json_object(extra,'$.lever.at_popup')='Off'; -- ★ 真穿透关键过滤
SELECT COUNT(DISTINCT z.guid) AS ctrl_uv FROM (
SELECT ns.guid, get_json_object(ns.extra,'$.reason') AS reason
FROM v_dwd_cp_log_impress_other_log_di ns
INNER JOIN (SELECT DISTINCT guid FROM dws_dmp_guid_group_di
WHERE group_id=100000414) p ON p.guid=ns.guid -- 全包;abtest=1 则加 AND abtest_group_id=1
WHERE ns.source=1 AND ns.pt BETWEEN '2026-06-06' AND '2026-06-10'
AND ns.action='notshow' AND ns.category='at_popup'
) z WHERE z.reason='AT Popup Lever Off';
-- 优化:先 JOIN 人群包(仅 3356 guid)再解析 JSON,避开 notshow 单日 209 万行全表 JSON 超时SELECT COUNT(DISTINCT i.guid) AS success_uv
FROM ( -- 穿透曝光的 (guid,商家,pt)
SELECT DISTINCT guid, domain, pt FROM v_dwd_log_parse_extension_service_impress_di
WHERE pt BETWEEN '2026-06-02' AND '2026-06-10' AND type='AT' AND scene='Popup'
AND get_json_object(extra,'$.at_high_value_package_user')='true'
AND get_json_object(extra,'$.at_high_value_package_user_style')='6.30.10-2'
AND get_json_object(extra,'$.lever.at_popup')='Off') i
INNER JOIN ( -- 过滤后的测券成功
SELECT DISTINCT client_id, domain, pt FROM v_dwd_log_parse_testing_log_di
WHERE pt BETWEEN '2026-06-02' AND '2026-06-10' AND source=1 AND business=1
AND (get_json_object(extra,'$.clicked_from')!='Auto_Testing' OR get_json_object(extra,'$.clicked_from') IS NULL)
AND get_json_object(extra,'$.clicked_from')!='ATAutoSaved_Popup'
AND (saved_amount>0 OR (save_type>0 AND save_type<100))) t
ON t.client_id=i.guid AND t.domain=i.domain AND t.pt=i.pt; -- ★ 同日(pt)匹配,绑定穿透当天
-- 测券 UV:去掉 saved_amount/save_type/clicked_from 过滤即可SELECT COUNT(CASE WHEN o.is_at_order=1 THEN 1 END) AS at_ord, ROUND(SUM(CASE WHEN o.is_at_order=1 THEN o.commission END),2) AS at_comm, COUNT(CASE WHEN o.is_cb_order=1 THEN 1 END) AS cb_ord, ROUND(SUM(CASE WHEN o.is_cb_order=1 THEN o.commission END),2) AS cb_comm, COUNT(DISTINCT o.guid) AS order_uv, ROUND(SUM(o.commission),2) AS total_comm FROM dwd_trd_user_orders_di o INNER JOIN (<队列 guid 子查询>) c ON c.guid=o.guid WHERE o.created_time >= '2026-06-06 00:00:00' AND o.created_time < '2026-06-11 00:00:00' -- 订单表无 pt,用 created_time AND (o.is_at_order=1 OR o.is_cb_order=1) AND o.domain IN (<商家集>); -- 同商家=144交集 / 各自全量=自身 522 或 662
-- 实验穿透商家 SELECT DISTINCT domain FROM v_dwd_log_parse_extension_service_impress_di WHERE pt BETWEEN '2026-06-06' AND '2026-06-10' AND type='AT' AND scene='Popup' AND get_json_object(extra,'$.at_high_value_package_user')='true' AND get_json_object(extra,'$.at_high_value_package_user_style')='6.30.10-2' AND get_json_object(extra,'$.lever.at_popup')='Off'; -- → 522 -- 对照 leveroff 商家:上面②的子查询取 DISTINCT domain → 662 -- 交集(同商家):两者 INNER JOIN ON domain → 144
-- 实验组按标识取的 AT 弹窗,按 lever.at_popup 拆 → 证明"标识≠穿透"
SELECT get_json_object(extra,'$.lever.at_popup') AS at_popup_lever,
COUNT(DISTINCT guid) AS uv
FROM v_dwd_log_parse_extension_service_impress_di
WHERE pt BETWEEN '2026-06-02' AND '2026-06-11' AND type='AT' AND scene='Popup'
AND get_json_object(extra,'$.at_high_value_package_user')='true'
AND get_json_object(extra,'$.at_high_value_package_user_style')='6.30.10-2'
GROUP BY 1; -- On=940(正常弹窗) / Off=690(真穿透) → 不加过滤会把曝光从 690 虚高到 1224数据源:Metabase db35(StarRocks / cp_dw·soar_dw)。报告由数据回收链路自动生成,结论以同商家对照口径为准。