5 月 CP 收入增量分析 — 新签 + 三批运营干预

chensu · 2026-06-01 · CP only 两大增量来源 含 7 天周均趋势 数据底座 soar_dw.dwd_trd_user_orders_di
本报告聚合 4 大类 / 8 个子板块的 5 月 CP 收入增量来源(2026-05-31 全月完整数据),并附 流量校准(SP 用户 ratio)。 Part 1(去重后)+ Part 2 CB-only 合计 ~+$37,727(Part 1 $13,172 + Part 2-A $11,249 + Part 2-B $12,945 + Part 2-C $361)。

🔄 2026-06-01 更新:① 所有 Part 1/2/4 数字升级到 5 月全月。 ② Part 2-A 删除 doordash.com(修复 SP 规则不带来 CB 收入)。 ③ Part 2-A/B/C 改用 CB-only 口径(click_type LIKE 'CB%'),除 A 中的 shopee.com.br / cisalfasport.it 保持全 click_type(因主要 AT 问题)。 ④ Part 3 各活动保持原报告窗口和口径。

📊 总览 & 快速导航

# 来源板块 描述 账面增量 校准后真增量 跳转
1 Part 1 — 新签商家 5 月新签 4,461 三元组 / 150 个有单(按订单去重) +$13,172 +$13,172 → 跳转
2 Part 2-A — 商家问题修复 飞书 22 商家(删 doordash)/ 12 家上涨 / CB-only(shopee+cisalfa 除外) +$11,249 ~+$10,900 → 跳转
3 Part 2-B — 待优化商家 xlsx 156 商家 / 101 家上涨 / CB-only +$12,945 ~+$12,500 → 跳转
4 Part 2-C — 提高兜底 CBR CSV 59 行 / 197 涨 232 跌 / CB-only(小幅净正) +$361 ~+$300 → 跳转
5 Part 3-① 活动 18 满 $25 返 $5 · 25 商家 · 仅正向 +$4,246(实际累计 +$1,248) +$4,246 +$4,018 → 跳转
6 Part 3-② 积分安全保障 9 家积分商家 AB · 仅正向 +$1,265(实际累计 −$40) +$1,265 ~+$1,100 → 跳转
7 Part 3-③ 5 月 CBR 调整 56 家两批调整 · 实际累计 +$18,235(剔 stubhub 季节性 ~+$10,638) +$18,235 ~+$17,500 → 跳转
8 Part 3-④ Impact 静默 30min aff_id=1166 AFF-SP 严格口径 · 实际累计 +$5,072 +$5,072 ~+$4,000 → 跳转
合计 账面 vs 流量校准后(5 月全月 + CB-only) ~+$66,545 ~+$60,000 → 校准

注:① 商家在不同板块有重叠(如 fc-moto.de 同时出现在 Part 2-A 和 Part 2-B / temu.com 同时在 CBR 和 Impact),合计存在轻微双算,实际去重后约 $52-58k
② "账面增量" = 5 月实际收入 − 4 月实际收入;"校准后真增量" = 5 月 − 4 月 × sp_ratio(用 SP 用户数比值剔除自然流量贡献,详见 Part 4)。
③ Part 1 纯新签 4 月基线为 0,无需校准。

📦 Part 1 新签商家 🔧 Part 2 运营干预 🎯 Part 3 4 个活动 📊 Part 4 流量校准

Part 1 — 4-5 月新签商家在 5 月的 CP 收入

📄 飞书原始文档 · 新增商家清单

1.1 统计逻辑

看「2026-05-01 ~ 2026-05-31 期间新增的 (domain, aff_id, country) 三元组」在 5 月给 CP 业务带来的 commission。 口径四要素:bu='CP'(排除 CPM/GCB/LB)、click_type ≠ 'AD_Vio'(排除违规)、 country JOIN with GLOBAL 通配(GLOBAL 三元组匹配任意 user_country,非 GLOBAL 精确匹配)、 反污染(订单 create_date ≥ 三元组首次入库时间)。

1.2 SQL

WITH new_triplets AS (
    SELECT LOWER(domain) AS domain, aff_id, country,
           MIN(created_at) AS aff_created_at
    FROM v_dim_pub_store_aff_country_df
    WHERE aff_id > 0
    GROUP BY LOWER(domain), aff_id, country
    HAVING MIN(created_at) >= '2026-05-01'
       AND MIN(created_at) <  '2026-06-01'
)
SELECT
    COUNT(DISTINCT CONCAT(t.domain,'|',CAST(t.aff_id AS VARCHAR),'|',t.country)) AS triplets_with_orders,
    COUNT(DISTINCT o.id) AS orders,
    ROUND(SUM(o.commission), 2) AS commission
FROM new_triplets t
JOIN soar_dw.dwd_trd_user_orders_di o
    ON LOWER(o.root_domain) = t.domain
    AND o.aff_id = t.aff_id
    AND (t.country = 'GLOBAL' OR o.user_country = t.country)   -- country JOIN
    AND o.create_date >= DATE(t.aff_created_at)                  -- 反污染
WHERE o.bu = 'CP' AND o.click_type != 'AD_Vio'
  AND o.create_date >= '2026-05-01' AND o.create_date < '2026-06-01';

1.3 结果(5 月全月 5-01~5-31 · 按订单去重)

分母
新增三元组
4,461
5 月新接 (domain, aff_id, country)
命中率(去重后)
有单三元组
150 / 3.4%
按订单 ROW_NUMBER 去重
5 月 commission
真实总增量 ✅
$13,172
2,005 单 · 全月完整
vs 原账面 $18,133
去重缩水
−$4,961
−27%(froya GLOBAL↔US 双算已修复)

1.4 TOP 3 Domain 日度收入

虚线 = 联盟接入日;注:折线图数据截止 5-25(5-26~5-31 未补数据,但前面统计表已经是全月)。

froyaorganics.com — $3,747 / 138 单
5-13 接入 aff 3609 / GLOBAL,5-18 补增 US;首单 5-14;5-25 单日峰值 $1,035
norseorganics.co — $913 / 16 单
5-13 接入 aff 3609 / GLOBAL;首单 5-14;走势同步 froya
wallshoppe.com — $383 / 2 单
5-06 接入 aff 2590 + 3505 / GLOBAL;首单 5-08;2 笔大单后沉默

1.5 TOP 10 三元组(5 月全月 · 按订单去重)

BUG 已修复:之前同一 (domain, aff_id) 既有 GLOBAL 又有精确 country 三元组时会双算(froya 虚报 657 单 / $9,697)。现已用 ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY o.id ORDER BY 精确 country 优先) 按订单去重,每订单只取最优匹配。
#Domain (aff_id / country)5 月 commission订单数
1froyaorganics.com (3609 / US)$4,360.75297
2norseorganics.co (3609 / GLOBAL)$2,529.4252
3froyaorganics.com (3609 / GLOBAL)$975.1063
4kiehls.ca (1063 / US)$444.00222
5skinceuticals.ca (1063 / US)$388.00194
6wallshoppe.com (2590 / GLOBAL)$383.312
7joinvoy.com (3505 / GB)$282.8221
8sixt.co.uk (2990 / GB)$274.0012
9ferryhopper.com (3498 / US)$233.8445
10lancome.ca (1063 / US)$212.00106

注:froyaorganics 真实拆分 = 3609/US(297 单 $4,361,精确匹配 US 用户)+ 3609/GLOBAL(63 单 $975,剩余非 US 用户),合计 360 单 / $5,336(vs 之前虚高 657 单 / $9,697)。aff 3609 = Skimlinks_Cashback / aff 1063 = CJ。

修正 SQL(按订单去重,每订单只取最优三元组匹配)
WITH new_triplets AS (
    SELECT LOWER(domain) AS domain, aff_id, country, MIN(created_at) AS aff_created_at
    FROM v_dim_pub_store_aff_country_df
    WHERE aff_id > 0
    GROUP BY LOWER(domain), aff_id, country
    HAVING MIN(created_at) >= '2026-05-01' AND MIN(created_at) < '2026-06-01'
),
joined AS (
    SELECT o.id, o.commission, t.domain, t.aff_id, t.country AS aff_country,
      ROW_NUMBER() OVER (
        PARTITION BY o.id
        ORDER BY
          CASE WHEN t.country = o.user_country THEN 0 ELSE 1 END,   -- 精确 country 优先
          t.aff_created_at                                                          -- 平局取最早入库
      ) AS rn
    FROM soar_dw.dwd_trd_user_orders_di o
    JOIN new_triplets t
      ON LOWER(o.root_domain) = t.domain AND o.aff_id = t.aff_id
      AND (t.country = 'GLOBAL' OR o.user_country = t.country)
      AND o.create_date >= DATE(t.aff_created_at)
    WHERE o.bu = 'CP' AND o.click_type != 'AD_Vio'
      AND o.create_date >= '2026-05-01' AND o.create_date < '2026-06-01'
)
SELECT domain, aff_id, aff_country,
       COUNT(DISTINCT id) AS orders,
       ROUND(SUM(commission), 2) AS commission
FROM joined WHERE rn = 1     -- 每订单只算一次
GROUP BY domain, aff_id, aff_country
ORDER BY commission DESC;

Part 2 — 三批商家运营干预上涨子集

📄 飞书原始文档 · 商家问题修复清单(A / B / C 三批共用)

2.1 上涨子集总览

数据源 A(CB-only*)
商家问题修复(飞书)
+$11,249
12 / 22 domain 上涨
4 月:$18,466(仅上涨子集)
5 月:$29,715(仅上涨子集)
数据源 B(CB-only)
待优化商家(xlsx)
+$12,945
101 / 117 domain 上涨
4 月 CB:$11,450
5 月 CB:$24,395(+113%)
数据源 C(CB-only)
提高兜底 CBR(CSV)
+$361
197 涨 / 232 跌 (domain×country)
4 月 CB:$8,623
5 月 CB:$8,984(+4%,小幅正向)
5 月全月 vs 4 月全月(CB-only 口径),Part 2 净增 ≈ $24,555(A +$11,249 + B +$12,945 + C +$361)。 *A 中 shopee.com.br / cisalfasport.it 算全 click_type(AT 问题);doordash.com 已删除。

2.2 真实查询 SQL(含完整 domain 清单)

2.1 数据源 A — 飞书 23 个 domain(上涨子集)
WITH agg AS (
  SELECT
      LOWER(root_domain) AS domain,
      SUM(CASE WHEN create_date >= '2026-04-01' AND create_date < '2026-05-01'
               THEN commission ELSE 0 END) AS apr,
      SUM(CASE WHEN create_date >= '2026-05-01' AND create_date < '2026-06-01'
               THEN commission ELSE 0 END) AS may
  FROM soar_dw.dwd_trd_user_orders_di
  WHERE bu = 'CP' AND click_type != 'AD_Vio'
    AND create_date >= '2026-04-01' AND create_date < '2026-06-01'
    AND LOWER(root_domain) IN (
        'xfinity.com', 'allegro.pl', 'shopee.com.br', 'uber.com',
        'just-eat.co.uk', 'onthatass.com', 'plaud.ai', 'udemy.com',
        'fc-moto.de', 'motatos.de', 'birminghamairport.co.uk', 'vrbo.com',
        'etsy.com', 'elcorteingles.es', 'carters.com', 'genspark.ai',
        'whatnot.com', 'doordash.com', 'kiwi.com', 'mgmresorts.com',
        'cisalfasport.it', 'parcel2go.com', 'bahn.de'
    )
  GROUP BY LOWER(root_domain)
)
SELECT domain, apr, may, (may - apr) AS delta,
       CASE WHEN apr > 0 THEN ROUND((may-apr)/apr*100, 1) END AS delta_pct
FROM agg
WHERE may > apr        -- 只看 5月 > 4月
ORDER BY delta DESC;
2.2 数据源 B — xlsx 156 个 domain(上涨子集)
WITH agg AS (
  SELECT
      LOWER(root_domain) AS domain,
      SUM(CASE WHEN create_date >= '2026-04-01' AND create_date < '2026-05-01'
               THEN commission ELSE 0 END) AS apr,
      SUM(CASE WHEN create_date >= '2026-05-01' AND create_date < '2026-06-01'
               THEN commission ELSE 0 END) AS may
  FROM soar_dw.dwd_trd_user_orders_di
  WHERE bu = 'CP' AND click_type != 'AD_Vio'
    AND create_date >= '2026-04-01' AND create_date < '2026-06-01'
    AND LOWER(root_domain) IN (
        'agelessrx.com','aimn.com.au','all.accor.com','amnutrition.fr','ankerkraut.de',
        'apexminecrafthosting.com','armani-beauty.ca','atida.fr','atlascoffeeclub.com',
        'audiobooks.com','backcountry.com','bananamoon.com','bark.us','basspro.com',
        'beer52.com','bonobos.com','booking.com','bouyguestelecom.fr','broderft.com',
        'buyee.jp','cabelas.com','carbethplants.co.uk','centauro.com.br','chemicalguys.com',
        'chewy.com','compressport.com','costway.co.uk','couteauxduchef.com','cpap.com',
        'crocs.com','cyberport.de','dailyom.com','dasher.doordash.com','daylesford.com',
        'de.lassie.co','dell.com','delsey.com','digitalrepublic.ch','dilling.de',
        'ding.com','diy.com','dransay.com','espaceplaisir.fr','etam.be',
        'etravelsim.com','fandiem.com','fast-growing-trees.com','fc-moto.de','fetchpet.com',
        'fitadium.com','fitnessboutique.fr','flipmylifenow.com','floraandfauna.com.au',
        'floresonline.com.br','flycorsair.com','forhers.com','fr.peugeot-saveurs.com',
        'fr.ryobitools.eu','francoisesaget.com','fromrebel.com','frostbuddy.com',
        'fruitbouquets.com','gameseal.com','gametime.co','gaystore.fr','goldcar.es',
        'gotprint.com','guthaben.de','habitatetjardin.com','hellowisp.com','hims.com',
        'hotelcollection.com','i-run.be','i-run.de','i-run.fr','idgarages.com',
        'instantfunding.com','instanthydration.com','insurify.com','interflora.es',
        'jcpenney.com','joules.com','kiehls.ca','kinderkraft.fr','kitandkin.com',
        'lampen24.be','lomax.dk','lotto24.de','loveamika.com','lovehoney.com.au',
        'luxuryflooring.co.uk','maison-lascours.fr','maxaroma.com','mazumamobile.com',
        'medi-market.be','metrobyt-mobile.com','milan-jeunesse.com','mintmobile.com',
        'monbento.com','moneyhero.com.hk','moneywalkie.com','monlapinrose.com',
        'monoprix.fr','morgandetoi.fr','musely.com','myperfectresume.com',
        'noughtsandkisses.co.uk','odisseias.com','oliveyoung.com','ollie.com',
        'onthatass.com','oscaro.com','patisserie-valerie.co.uk','petco.com',
        'pistoladenim.com','quince.com','raja.fr','recommerce.com',
        'reservation.parcasterix.fr','resume-now.com','rhodeskin.com','ro.co',
        'rougier-ple.fr','rugsusa.com','sallybeauty.com','sanscomplexe.com',
        'sarenza.com','segurospromo.com.br','shein.co.uk','shein.com.mx','shipt.com',
        'skinceuticals.ca','skinnymixes.com','sowell.fr','stc-nutrition.fr',
        'stonehengehealth.com','t-mobile.com','taskrabbit.com','tchibo.de',
        'thecardzoo.com','thewineflyer.co.uk','totalwine.com','tractorsupply.com',
        'tripadvisor.co.uk','ubereats.com','visible.com','vitaminexpress.org',
        'walmart.com','wayfair.com','weedmaps.com','welcomepickups.com',
        'wowtv.de','xxlnutrition.com','yesoulfitness.com','yslbeauty.ca','zumub.com'
    )
  GROUP BY LOWER(root_domain)
)
SELECT domain, apr, may, (may - apr) AS delta
FROM agg WHERE may > apr
ORDER BY delta DESC;
2.3 数据源 C — CSV 59 行 (domain, country)(上涨子集,GLOBAL 不限国家)
WITH agg AS (
  SELECT
      LOWER(root_domain) AS domain,
      user_country,
      SUM(CASE WHEN create_date >= '2026-04-01' AND create_date < '2026-05-01'
               THEN commission ELSE 0 END) AS apr,
      SUM(CASE WHEN create_date >= '2026-05-01' AND create_date < '2026-06-01'
               THEN commission ELSE 0 END) AS may
  FROM soar_dw.dwd_trd_user_orders_di
  WHERE bu = 'CP' AND click_type != 'AD_Vio'
    AND create_date >= '2026-04-01' AND create_date < '2026-06-01'
    AND (
        -- GLOBAL 组(不限 user_country,CSV 里 country=GLOBAL)
        LOWER(root_domain) IN (
            'skyscanner.net','skyscanner.com','picsart.com','skyscanner.es',
            'allegro.cz','12go.asia','nordpass.com','cyberghostvpn.com',
            'surfshark.com','malwarebytes.com','avira.com','macpaw.com',
            'newspapers.com','g-portal.com','perlego.com','lalal.ai',
            'wondershare.com','veepn.com','onthatass.com','youfone.nl',
            'findmypast.co.uk','iobit.com','joyn.de','wondershare.de',
            'nrjmobile.fr','cdon.se','airdroid.com','nazwa.pl',
            'checkdomain.de','wondershare.fr','tenorshare.com','wingo.ch',
            'bebeboutik-prive.fr','manual.com.br','farmaciaindiana.com.br',
            'epidemicsound.com','lapostemobile.fr','cdon.dk','getmailbird.com',
            'wps.com','flexclip.com','trendmicro.com','healthlabs.com'
        )
        -- 精确 country 组(CSV 里指定了具体 country 且无对应 GLOBAL 行)
        OR (LOWER(root_domain)='nordvpn.com'      AND user_country='AU')
        OR (LOWER(root_domain)='momondo.com'      AND user_country='US')
        OR (LOWER(root_domain)='hellofresh.fr'    AND user_country='FR')
        OR (LOWER(root_domain)='pdffiller.com'    AND user_country='FR')
        OR (LOWER(root_domain)='boostmobile.com'  AND user_country='US')
        OR (LOWER(root_domain)='justanswer.co.uk' AND user_country='US')
        OR (LOWER(root_domain)='tello.com'        AND user_country='US')
        OR (LOWER(root_domain)='idmobile.co.uk'   AND user_country='GB')
        OR (LOWER(root_domain)='billetreduc.com'  AND user_country='FR')
        OR (LOWER(root_domain)='sling.com'        AND user_country='US')
    )
  GROUP BY LOWER(root_domain), user_country
)
SELECT domain, user_country, apr, may, (may - apr) AS delta
FROM agg WHERE may > apr
ORDER BY delta DESC;
2.4 折线图日度数据 SQL(4-01 ~ 5-25,55 天 × 13 个 domain,未扩展到 5-31)
-- A + B 数据源:不限 country
SELECT
    DATE(create_date) AS d,
    LOWER(root_domain) AS domain,
    ROUND(SUM(commission), 2) AS commission
FROM soar_dw.dwd_trd_user_orders_di
WHERE bu = 'CP' AND click_type != 'AD_Vio'
  AND create_date >= '2026-04-01' AND create_date < '2026-06-01'
  AND LOWER(root_domain) IN (
      'etsy.com','kiwi.com','fc-moto.de','doordash.com',
      'allegro.pl','xfinity.com','shopee.com.br','parcel2go.com',
      'birminghamairport.co.uk','whatnot.com','all.accor.com'
  )
GROUP BY DATE(create_date), LOWER(root_domain)
ORDER BY domain, d;

-- C 数据源 GLOBAL:不限 country
SELECT
    DATE(create_date) AS d,
    LOWER(root_domain) AS domain,
    ROUND(SUM(commission), 2) AS commission
FROM soar_dw.dwd_trd_user_orders_di
WHERE bu = 'CP' AND click_type != 'AD_Vio'
  AND create_date >= '2026-04-01' AND create_date < '2026-06-01'
  AND LOWER(root_domain) IN (
      'skyscanner.net','malwarebytes.com','veepn.com','manual.com.br'
  )
GROUP BY DATE(create_date), LOWER(root_domain)
ORDER BY domain, d;

2.3 数据源 A — 12 个上涨 domain 明细(5 月全月 · CB-only)

口径:除 shopee.com.brcisalfasport.it 算全 click_type 外(这俩主要 AT 问题),其他 20 个商家只算 click_type LIKE 'CB%'doordash.com 已删除(修复 SP 规则不影响 CB 收入)。

#Domain修复事件(日期)4 月 CB5 月 CBΔ $Δ %
1etsy.comUS 开 CB (4-23) + 补 PDP (5-18)$9,158$18,270+$9,112+99%
2kiwi.comCB 规则修 (5-15)$1,549$4,151+$2,602+168%
3allegro.plCB 弹窗多语言 (5-18)$3,403$3,988+$586+17%
4udemy.comCBR 计算修复 (5-11)$2,458$3,042+$584+24%
5fc-moto.deBD 分数策略 (5-12)$371$757+$385+104%
6xfinity.comFCB 弹窗关闭 (5-09)$695$874+$179+26%
7whatnot.comSP 埋点 (5-28)$358$533+$175+49%
8shopee.com.br (全口径)AT 阈值讨论 (5-13)$340$497+$156+46%
9plaud.aiCB 复用 AT 规则 (5-18)$65$153+$88+135%
10parcel2go.com联盟政策 (5-18)$84$156+$72+85%
11mgmresorts.com商家改版修复 (5-15)$0$68+$68全新
12birminghamairport.co.ukCB 曝光异常 (5-12)$221$226+$6+3%
上涨子集合计$18,466$29,715+$11,249+61%

注:下降的 7 个商家(uber / onthatass / motatos / cisalfasport / carters / genspark / just-eat)合计 −$806。vrbo.com / bahn.de / elcorteingles.es 5 月无 CP-CB 订单(前两个已关插件/联盟,elcorte 量极小)。

2.4 数据源 B — TOP 10 上涨(5 月全月 · CB-only)

口径:156 商家全部只算 click_type LIKE 'CB%'。共 117 个商家在数仓中有 CB 订单,101 个上涨 / 16 个下降,整体净增 +$12,945(+113%)。

#Domain4 月 CB5 月 CBΔ $Δ %
1forhers.com$0$1,278+$1,278全新
2shein.co.uk$4,818$6,071+$1,253+26%
3diy.com$799$1,636+$837+105%
4walmart.com$0$835+$835全新
5chewy.com$668$1,448+$779+117%
6weedmaps.com$0$715+$715全新
7hims.com$0$588+$588全新
8bouyguestelecom.fr$0$485+$485全新
9myperfectresume.com$0$408+$408全新
10fc-moto.de$371$757+$385+104%

注:B 数据源里大量"全新"商家(4 月零 → 5 月有量),是 BD 在 5 月新接入并立刻产生收入的商家。完整 156 商家清单见 飞书原始文档

2.5 数据源 C — TOP 10 上涨(5 月全月 · CB-only,按 domain×user_country)

口径:CSV 59 行商家全部只算 click_type LIKE 'CB%',按 domain × user_country 展开。共 429 个组合有 CB 订单,197 个上涨 / 232 个下降,整体净增 +$361(小幅正向,4 月 $8,623 → 5 月 $8,984)。

#Domain (user_country)4 月 CB5 月 CBΔ $Δ %
1skyscanner.com (US)$149$413+$264+177%
2skyscanner.net (GB)$966$1,151+$185+19%
3surfshark.com (GB)$61$230+$169+277%
4malwarebytes.com (PH)$0$144+$144全新
5malwarebytes.com (GB)$20$163+$142+715%
6idmobile.co.uk (GB)$80$217+$136+171%
7wondershare.com (DK)$0$136+$136全新
8hellofresh.fr (FR)$44$178+$134+305%
9youfone.nl (NL)$0$106+$106全新
10cdon.dk (DK)$39$132+$93+239%
TOP 5 下降(CBR 调整后反降)
#Domain (user_country)4 月 CB5 月 CBΔ $
1justanswer.co.uk (US)$504$63−$441
2cyberghostvpn.com (FR)$272$16−$256
3wondershare.fr (FR)$174$20−$154
4cyberghostvpn.com (DE)$155$13−$142
5surfshark.com (FR)$164$35−$129

关键洞察:CBR 调整在小体量长尾商家上效果显著(如 malwarebytes-PH、skyscanner-US、hellofresh-FR),但部分头部 VPN/工具类商家(justanswer-US、cyberghostvpn 各国、surfshark-FR、wondershare-FR)出现明显下滑。整体净增小(+$361 / +4%),说明 CBR 提高总体对 CB 收入是中性偏正向,但商家差异极大。

2.6 折线图:18 个 Domain × 7 天周均

日度 commission 7 天周均(rolling avg) 运营动作时间 月分隔

数据源 A — 商家问题修复(6 个)

etsy.com — 全 type — +$4,948(+32%)
4-23 US 开 CB · 5-18 补 PDP 规则
kiwi.com — 仅 CB — +$1,469(+59%)
5-15 CB 规则修(4-20~4-29 有 CB 断崖,5-01 起回升)
fc-moto.de — 全 type — +$979(+37%)
5-12 BD 分数策略(CB 体量小,主力为 AT)
allegro.pl — 全 type — +$261(+8%)
5-18 CB 弹窗多语言
shopee.com.br — 仅 AT — +$151(+63%)
5-13 AT 阈值讨论
whatnot.com — 全 type — +$207(+61%)
5-14 SP 埋点排查

数据源 B — 待优化商家(7 个)

all.accor.com — +$6,517(+5,964%)
5-13 拐点(4 月几乎无收入,5-13 起每日 $200–1,000)
woolworths.com.au — +$8,764(B 数据源 #1)
4-21 起阶梯爬升,5 月稳定 $700–$1,000/天
stubhub.com — +$6,034(#2)
演出票务,5-13 / 5-22 出现千美元单日峰
viator.com — +$1,482(#3)
5-17 起单日突破 $1,000,5-25 峰值 $1,067
farfetch.com — +$1,263(#4)
5-04 出现 $565 峰值,5 月整体回稳
levi.com — +$576(#9)
4 月日均 $17 → 5 月日均 $43,5-18 单日峰值 $110
priceline.com — +$781(#8)
CB 主导(65%),5 月日均 $151 vs 4 月 $99

数据源 C — 提高兜底 CBR(5 个)

skyscanner.net (GLOBAL) — +$157(+16%)
5-13 CBR 调整
skyscanner.com (含 US) — +$164(+43%)
5-13 CBR 调整 · 后段日均 +65%,5-24 单日 $63
malwarebytes.com (GLOBAL) — +$146(+29%)
5-13 CBR 调整 · 5-11 后多次单日 $50-$133 大单
idmobile.co.uk (GB) — +$87(+57%)
5-13 CBR 调整 · 后段出单密度明显增加(5-13/18/21~24 连续)
hellofresh.fr (FR) — +$59(+61%)
5-13 CBR 调整 · 4 月中下旬几乎断档,5-13 后稳定出单

Part 3 — 4 个运营活动 5 月数据回收

📄 飞书原始文档 · 4 个运营策略汇总

特别凸显「日均增量订单」概念作为首要指标。4 个活动合计:日均订单 +306.9 单/天,累计增量 +3,883 单, 实际累计佣金 +$24,515.76,实际增量佣金 +$53,035.48

3.1 横向对比总览

# 活动 对比窗口 日均增量订单 累计增量订单 实际累计佣金 实际增量佣金
仅正向
1 活动 18(满$25返$5) 5/1~5/22 vs 4/1~4/22(22 天) +20.9 +459 +$1,248.45 +$4,246.42
2 积分安全交互保障 5/5~5/11 vs 4/28~5/4(7 天) +82.9 +580 −$40.21 +$1,264.54
3 5 月 CBR 调整 5/8~5/21 vs 4/8~4/21(14 天) +137.9 +1,930 +$18,235.49 +$26,445.78
4 Impact 静默 30min 5/8~5/21 vs 4/8~4/21(14 天) +65.3 +914 +$5,072.03 +$21,078.74
合计 / 加权 +306.9 单/天 +3,883 单 +$24,515.76 +$53,035.48

注:4 个活动窗口长度不同(7/14/14/22 天),「日均增量订单」做了天数归一化便于横向对比;累计数字是各自窗口内的原值。

3.2 活动 18 — 满 $25 返 $5

① 日均增量订单
+20.9
单/天
② 累计增量订单
+459
22 天
③ 累计日均佣金
+$56.75
/天
④ 累计佣金
+$1,248
22 天净
⑤ 增量日均
+$193.02
仅正向
⑥ 增量佣金
+$4,246
仅正向 / 月化 $5,792

活动 18(满 $25 返 $5)整体上线 4/24,5 月对比 4 月:覆盖用户 24,150(曝光过活动弹窗),商家 25 个 V4 清单。 按 (root_domain, visit_country) 分组算正向贡献:lowes+macys+shein.com.fr 三家就吃掉一半增量;sephora-US/UA、ebay-US、chewy-US 等 8 个 (domain,country) 负向 -$2,998 抵掉部分。

SQL — 活动 18 user 集合 + 4/5 月对比
-- 1. 活动覆盖 user 集合(看到活动弹窗的 24,150 user)
SELECT DISTINCT guid
FROM v_dwd_log_parse_extension_service_impress_di
WHERE pt >= '2026-04-24' AND pt < '2026-05-23'
  AND substring(get_json_string(extra, '$.activity_key'), 1, 3) = '18.'
  AND get_json_string(extra, '$.sp_order_cashback') = '1'
  AND scene IN ('Popup','Icon')
  AND type IN ('CB');

-- 2. 4/5 月分窗对比订单 + commission
SELECT
  o.root_domain, o.visit_country,
  SUM(CASE WHEN o.create_date BETWEEN '2026-04-01' AND '2026-04-22' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS apr_orders,
  SUM(CASE WHEN o.create_date BETWEEN '2026-05-01' AND '2026-05-22' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS may_orders,
  ROUND(SUM(CASE WHEN o.create_date BETWEEN '2026-04-01' AND '2026-04-22' THEN commission ELSE 0 END), 2) AS apr_comm,
  ROUND(SUM(CASE WHEN o.create_date BETWEEN '2026-05-01' AND '2026-05-22' THEN commission ELSE 0 END), 2) AS may_comm
FROM dwd_trd_user_orders_di o
WHERE o.create_date BETWEEN '2026-04-01' AND '2026-05-22'
  AND o.root_domain IN (  -- 25 商家 V4 清单
    'target.com','ebay.com','doordash.com','samsclub.com','chewy.com',
    'etsy.com','lowes.com','macys.com','ihg.com','ulta.com',
    'vistaprint.com','priceline.com','sephora.com','just-eat.co.uk','shein.com',
    'cvs.com','bestbuy.com','walgreens.com','michaels.com','jcpenney.com',
    'kohls.com','officedepot.com','michaelkors.com','adidas.com','petco.com'
  )
  AND o.guid IN ( -- 活动覆盖 24,150 user 子查询,同上 1. )
GROUP BY o.root_domain, o.visit_country;

3.3 积分安全交互保障

① 日均增量订单
+82.9
单/天
② 累计增量订单
+580
7 天
③ 累计日均佣金
−$5.69
/天
④ 累计佣金
−$40.21
7 天净(负向抵消)
⑤ 增量日均
+$180.65
仅正向 20 个组合
⑥ 增量佣金
+$1,264.54
仅正向

9 家积分体系商家 AB 实验(B 实验 = 看到"积分不受影响"文案 / A 对照)。订单层 +18%(严格漏斗 805→950 单),SP→下单 +4.05pp 是真正杠杆。 负向主要在 samsclub-US(−$146)+ agoda 东亚(HK/TW/NZ/KR 合计 −$442),需文案/人群优化。

SQL — 6 层严格漏斗 + 6 大指标
-- 严格 6 环节漏斗(B 实验组)
SELECT
  'B_exp' AS arm,
  count(DISTINCT i.guid) AS impr_users,
  count(DISTINCT CASE WHEN c.guid IS NOT NULL THEN i.guid END) AS click_users,
  count(DISTINCT CASE WHEN c.guid IS NOT NULL AND ob.client_id IS NOT NULL THEN i.guid END) AS act_users,
  count(DISTINCT CASE WHEN c.guid IS NOT NULL AND ob.client_id IS NOT NULL AND sp.guid IS NOT NULL THEN i.guid END) AS sp_users,
  count(DISTINCT CASE WHEN c.guid IS NOT NULL AND ob.client_id IS NOT NULL AND sp.guid IS NOT NULL AND o.guid IS NOT NULL THEN i.guid END) AS order_users,
  SUM(CASE WHEN c.guid IS NOT NULL AND ob.client_id IS NOT NULL AND sp.guid IS NOT NULL AND o.guid IS NOT NULL THEN o.cb_orders ELSE 0 END) AS orders
FROM ( -- 曝光 + 看到文案
  SELECT DISTINCT guid FROM v_dwd_log_parse_extension_service_impress_di
  WHERE pt BETWEEN '2026-05-05' AND '2026-05-11'
    AND domain IN ('tesco.com','allegro.pl','samsclub.com','kohls.com','target.com',
                   'marksandspencer.com','agoda.com','rewe.de','argos.co.uk')
    AND type='CB' AND scene IN ('Popup','FirstPage','Icon')
    AND get_json_object(extra,'$.core_tips_style')='6.19.90-2'
    AND get_json_object(extra,'$.core_tips_enabled')='1'
) i
LEFT JOIN ( -- 点击 / 激活 / SP / 订单 同结构 join, 见原报告附录 A.2 ) ...
;

3.4 5 月 CBR 调整

① 日均增量订单
+137.9
单/天
② 累计增量订单
+1,930
14 天
③ 累计日均佣金
+$1,302.54
/天
④ 累计佣金
+$18,235
14 天净
⑤ 增量日均
+$1,888.98
仅正向
⑥ 增量佣金
+$26,445
仅正向 / 月化 $56k

两批 CBR 调整:第一批 4-23(13 家)+ 第二批 5-8(43 家)。已剔除 medimops.de(联盟事故)/ agoda.com(CB 关闭)/ freshdirect.com / parfumdreams.de / 5-15 调回 13 家。
⚠️ 归因警告:+$18,235 增量 99% 由 5 家驱动:stubhub.com +$7,597(41.7%,演唱会季节性,与 CBR 无因果)/ temu.com +$5,022 / zoro.com +$2,413 / viator.com +$2,021 / shein.co.uk +$998。剔除 stubhub 季节性后真实净增 ≈ +$10,638(月化 +$22,800)

SQL — 56 家商家 PRE/POST 对比(ClickHouse 口径)
SELECT
  Domain AS subdomain,
  multiIf(
    -- 第一批提升 11 家(剔除 medimops + agoda)
    (Domain='cvs.com' AND VisitCountry='US')
      OR (Domain='dickssportinggoods.com' AND VisitCountry='US')
      OR (Domain='shopee.com.br' AND VisitCountry='BR')
      OR (Domain='ocado.com' AND VisitCountry='GB')
      OR (Domain='qvcuk.com') OR (Domain='lidl.fr' AND VisitCountry='FR')
      OR (Domain='kohls.com' AND VisitCountry='US')
      OR (Domain='thriftbooks.com') OR (Domain='morenutrition.de' AND VisitCountry='DE')
      OR (Domain='levi.com' AND VisitCountry='US') OR (Domain='aegeanair.com'),
    '一批_提升',
    Domain IN ('getyourguide.com','viator.com'), '一批_降低',
    -- 第二批提升 18 家 + 第二批降低 25 家见原报告 A.3
    'Other'
  ) AS adj_group,
  CASE WHEN CreatedTime < '2026-04-22 00:00:00' THEN 'PRE_14d' ELSE 'POST_14d' END AS period,
  countIf(positionUTF8(ClickType, 'CB') > 0) AS cb_orders,
  countIf(positionUTF8(ClickType, 'AT') > 0) AS at_orders,
  round(sumIf(Commission, positionUTF8(ClickType, 'CB') > 0), 2) AS cb_commission,
  round(sumIf(Commission, positionUTF8(ClickType, 'AT') > 0), 2) AS at_commission
FROM user_orders
WHERE (CreatedTime >= '2026-04-08 00:00:00' AND CreatedTime < '2026-04-22 00:00:00')
   OR (CreatedTime >= '2026-05-08 00:00:00' AND CreatedTime < '2026-05-22 00:00:00')
GROUP BY Domain, adj_group, period
HAVING adj_group != 'Other';

3.5 Impact 静默 1h → 30min 改造

① 日均增量订单
+65.3
单/天
② 累计增量订单
+914
14 天
③ 累计日均佣金
+$362.29
/天
④ 累计佣金
+$5,072
14 天净
⑤ 增量日均
+$1,505.62
仅正向
⑥ 增量佣金
+$21,078
仅正向 / 683 pair 上涨

aff_id=1166(ImpactRadius)静默时间 1h→30min。灰度时间线:4-24 上线 10% / 5-8 12:00 扩 50%。 口径:AFF-SP 严格口径(aff_id=1166 商家 + journey 表 SP 池过滤 cps_score>40)。 订单增长 +15.7%(PRE 5,823 → POST 6,737),佣金 +12.4%。683 个 (domain, country) pair 上涨 +$21,079 / 560 个下降 -$16,007 / 净 +$5,072。

SQL — Impact 1166 AFF-SP 严格口径
-- SP 池过滤(关键)+ aff_id=1166 + 4/5 月 14d 对比
SELECT
  phase, days,
  COUNT(*) AS orders_total,
  ROUND(COUNT(*)*1.0/days, 1) AS orders_pd,
  ROUND(SUM(COALESCE(o.commission,0)), 2) AS comm_total,
  ROUND(SUM(COALESCE(o.commission,0))/days, 2) AS comm_pd
FROM (
  SELECT
    CASE
      WHEN o2.create_date BETWEEN '2026-04-08' AND '2026-04-21' THEN 'PRE_Apr_08-21'
      WHEN o2.create_date BETWEEN '2026-05-08' AND '2026-05-21' THEN 'POST_May_08-21'
    END AS phase,
    14 AS days, o2.*
  FROM dwd_trd_user_orders_di o2
  JOIN (                                            -- 🔑 SP 池过滤
    SELECT DISTINCT guid FROM dws_log_sp_user_shopping_journey_detail_di
    WHERE pt BETWEEN '2026-03-01' AND '2026-05-21'
      AND aff_id = 1166
      AND cps_score > 40
  ) sp ON o2.guid = sp.guid
  LEFT JOIN dwd_trd_order_cashback_det_d c
    ON CAST(o2.order_id AS CHAR) = CAST(c.order_id AS CHAR)
   AND c.aff_id = 1166
  WHERE o2.aff_id = 1166
    AND (o2.create_date BETWEEN '2026-04-08' AND '2026-04-21'
         OR o2.create_date BETWEEN '2026-05-08' AND '2026-05-21')
    AND COALESCE(o2.is_fraudulent, 0) = 0
    AND COALESCE(o2.is_canceld, 0) = 0
    AND COALESCE(o2.activity_id, 0) = 0      -- 剔活动
    AND COALESCE(c.has_activity, 0) = 0      -- 剔活动
) o
WHERE phase IS NOT NULL
GROUP BY phase, days
ORDER BY phase;

3.6 典型上涨 Domain 日度折线图

每个活动挑 3-4 个典型上涨 (domain, country),标注活动启动时间。所有图共享 4-01~5-25 坐标轴(折线图未扩到 5-31)。

① 活动 18 — 满 $25 返 $5(4-24 整体上线)

lowes.com (US) — +$631
日均 $314 → $321(持平,但 5 月 16-21 单日多次破 $500)
macys.com (US) — +$610
日均 $310 → $310(持平但订单密度增加)
shein.com (FR) — +$334
5 月前半段强(5-04 单日 $458),5-18 后回落
ihg.com (FR) — +$330(从 0)
4 月完全无单,5-19 单笔 $330 爆发(旅游季节性)

② 积分安全交互保障(5-05 B 实验组上线)

allegro.pl (PL) — +$179
5-05 后明显抬升,5-25 单日 $233 创新高
rewe.de (DE) — +$50
5 月日均 $33 vs 4 月 $28,5-12/5-22 单日峰值 $50+
marksandspencer.com (GB) — +$26
⚠️ 5-15~5-18 出现断崖(单日仅 $2~$4),疑似配置异常

③ 5 月 CBR 调整(4-23 第一批 + 5-08 第二批) — 提升 CBR 带来 CB 收入增长 TOP 6

展示「提升 CBR 给用户更高返现比例 → 用户吸引力提高 → CB 收入正向增长」的真实案例。CB-only 严格口径,PRE 14d (4-08~4-21) vs POST 14d (5-08~5-21)。

shein.co.uk (GB) — +$1,018
第二批 5-08 提升,PRE $2,135 → POST $3,153(+48%),5-14 单日 $370 创新高
diy.com (GB) — +$489
第二批 5-08 提升,PRE $534 → POST $1,023(+92%),5 月下旬日均 $130+ 稳定爆发
cvs.com (US) — +$229
第一批 4-23 提升,PRE $278 → POST $508(+82%),5-06/5-20 单日 $70+ 峰值
shopee.com.br (BR) — +$139
第一批 4-23 提升,PRE $97 → POST $236(+143%),从单日 $0~$10 抬到 $15-30 日均
lidl.fr (FR) — +$133
第一批 4-23 提升,PRE $145 → POST $278(+92%),5 月下旬连续突破 $80-$166
levi.com (US) — +$125
第一批 4-23 提升,PRE $52 → POST $178(+240%),从日均 $2-5 跳到 $10-30 区间
📊 完整 29 家提升 CBR 商家 PRE/POST CB 收入对比(点击展开)
#domain批次PRE CBPOST CBΔ
1shein.co.uk二批$2,135$3,153+$1,018
2diy.com二批$534$1,023+$489
3aegeanair.com一批$461$707+$246
4cvs.com一批$278$508+$229
5ocado.com ⚠️一批$28$232+$205
6shopee.com.br一批$97$236+$139
7lidl.fr一批$145$278+$133
8skyscanner.net二批$609$739+$131
9levi.com一批$52$178+$125
10br.shein.com二批$216$317+$101
11kohls.com一批$231$310+$79
12thriftbooks.com一批$76$80+$5
13dickssportinggoods.com一批$123$126+$3
14materlotteries.com.au二批$213$216+$3
— 以下 15 家为负向(提升 CBR 后 CB 收入反降,详见原报告 §5.2 / §6.2)—
15au.shein.com二批$1,371$763-$607
16medpex.de二批$443$184-$259
17poco.de二批$517$266-$251
18vevor.de二批$503$328-$175
19us.shein.com二批$1,378$1,212-$166
20morenutrition.de ⚠️一批$265$102-$163

⚠️ ocado.com PRE 期 465 单仅 $28(单笔 $0.06)疑似数据/配置异常;morenutrition.de 见 §8.3 商家级事故诊断。

④ Impact 静默 1h→30min(4-24 10% 启动 + 5-08 扩 50%)

temu.com / FR (aff 1166) — +$1,163
5-08 扩 50% 后日均从 $130 提升到 $230,5-25 $376 峰值
bestbuy.com / US (aff 1166) — +$791
⭐ 5-08 后从日均 $12 跃升到 $60+,5-15 单日 $236
luxuryescapes.com / AU (aff 1166) — +$607
5-19 单日 $617 / 5-23 单日 $774 大额爆发

3.7 4 个活动总览洞察

Part 4 — 流量校准(SP 用户 ratio)

关键发现:全局 CP SP 流量 5月 vs 4月 = -0.3%(持平略降)。 意味着「5 月整体流量上涨」假设不成立,账面增量基本就是真增量,不需要 across-the-board 打折。 但 domain 个体差异大:部分 ratio > 1(流量本身在涨,账面增量需折扣)、部分 ratio < 1(流量在跌,账面增量反而被低估)。

4.1 校准原则

每个商家自己的 SP 流量 ratio做校准,而非全局。每个 domain 的 SP 用户数变化差异很大(最低 ratio 0.18 / 最高 3.22),用全局平均会失真。

ratio > 1.1(高,需打折)
22 个
流量本身在涨
ratio 0.9 ~ 1.1(持平)
25 个
基本不打折
ratio < 0.9(低,反被低估)
8 个
5 月流量在跌
Part 1 处理
不打折
4 月基线为 0

4.2 校准方法

// 公式(按各 domain 自己的 sp_ratio 校准)
true_delta = may_revenue − apr_revenue × sp_ratio

// 含义:用 sp_ratio 把 4 月基线"放大/缩小"到与 5 月同等流量水位,再看增量是否真实
// ratio > 1:5 月流量比 4 月高,账面增量虚高,需要打折
// ratio = 1:流量持平,账面增量 = 真增量
// ratio < 1:5 月流量比 4 月低,5 月还涨说明真增量更大,账面被低估

4.3 涉及 domain 的 SP ratio 完整表(55 个 · 全月)

展开 55 个 domain 的商家级 SP ratio(4 月全月 vs 5 月全月,按 ratio 降序)
#domain4 月 SP(30d)5 月 SP(31d)ratio分类
1bestbuy.com1,2984,1743.216⚠️ 异常暴涨
2priceline.com1,5052,5501.694高 ratio
3fromyouflowers.com3976321.592高 ratio
4farfetch.com6439711.510高 ratio
5manual.com.br65961.477高 ratio
6xfinity.com1331801.353高 ratio
7walgreens.com4,5695,9561.304高 ratio
8plaud.ai1551991.284高 ratio
9luxuryescapes.com2623361.282高 ratio
10sarenza.com5847451.276高 ratio
11malwarebytes.com1622051.265高 ratio
12justanswer.co.uk1662091.259高 ratio
13tello.com3844741.234高 ratio
14shein.co.uk4,8325,8531.211高 ratio
15adidas.com9871,1721.187高 ratio
16diy.com4,1914,9681.185高 ratio
17forhers.com22261.182小样本
18marksandspencer.com5,8216,7431.158高 ratio
19joom.com2853291.154高 ratio
20shein.com14,29616,3181.141高 ratio
21levi.com1,1281,2741.129高 ratio
22dransay.com2963301.115高 ratio
23viator.com9521,0471.100持平
24epidemicsound.com2803071.096持平
25samsclub.com6,1346,6751.088持平
26shopee.com.br6,5847,1541.087持平
27lowes.com5,7646,1561.068持平
28zoro.com5155441.056持平
29target.com7,3367,6791.047持平
30woolworths.com.au6,4886,7951.047持平
31allegro.pl16,53317,2141.041持平
32udemy.com2,4432,5431.041持平
33tesco.com9,94410,3141.037持平
34temu.com61,74863,1301.022持平
35michaels.com51521.020小样本
36totalwine.com6626711.014持平
37hellofresh.fr2242261.009持平
38stubhub.com1,3011,3061.004持平
39getyourguide.com5,4905,5011.002持平
40viovet.co.uk1191191.000持平
41ihg.com3,0263,0120.995持平
42rewe.de1,5411,5280.992持平
43etsy.com30,18329,7660.986持平
44whatnot.com1,6841,6480.979持平
45parcel2go.com1,4721,4150.961持平
46skyscanner.com2,0962,0130.960持平
47petco.com8658060.932持平
48kiwi.com1,7771,5890.894低 ratio(被低估)
49kohls.com1,8771,6670.888低 ratio(被低估)
50idmobile.co.uk3823360.880低 ratio(被低估)
51agoda.com8,8127,6510.868低 ratio(被低估)
52veepn.com52450.865小样本
53macys.com2,6422,0970.794低 ratio(被低估)
54fc-moto.de19150.789极小样本
55birminghamairport.co.uk315580.184⚠️ 异常暴跌

注:all.accor.com 和 skyscanner.net 在 SP journey 表中无记录(按 1.0 处理)。bestbuy.com(ratio=3.22)和 birminghamairport.co.uk(ratio=0.18)为异常值,需单独核查数仓口径。
商家级 ratio 而非全局 ratio:每个 domain 用自己的 SP 流量变化校准账面 delta,避免被全局平均 +0.7% 掩盖实际个体差异。

4.4 关键 TOP Domain 校准对比

Part 2 数据源 A — 11 个上涨 domain

domain4 月5 月账面 Δratio校准基线真增量差异
etsy.com$15,263$20,211+$4,9480.988$15,080+$5,131+$183
kiwi.com$2,472$3,940+$1,4690.879$2,173+$1,767+$298
fc-moto.de$2,619$3,598+$9790.875$2,292+$1,306+$327
doordash.com$934$1,544+$6100.855$799+$745+$135
allegro.pl$3,420$3,681+$2611.039$3,553+$128−$133
xfinity.com$590$829+$2391.370$808+$21−$218
whatnot.com$340$547+$2070.941$320+$227+$20
shopee.com.br$240$391+$1511.066$256+$135−$16
plaud.ai$42$188+$1461.392$58+$130−$16
parcel2go.com$68$108+$400.958$65+$43+$3
birminghamairport.co.uk ⚠️$336$370+$340.225$76+$294+$260
A 合计$26,324$35,407+$9,083$25,480+$9,927+$844

Part 3 活动 18 — TOP 15 上涨明细

domain (country)4 月5 月账面 Δratio真增量
lowes.com (US)$872$1,504+$6311.047+$591
macys.com (US)$858$1,468+$6100.802+$780
shein.com (FR)$323$657+$3341.101+$301
ihg.com (FR)$0$330+$330+$330
etsy.com (US)$1,928$2,236+$3080.988+$331
michaels.com (US)$309$613+$3030.952+$319
priceline.com (US)$79$378+$2981.543+$256
adidas.com (US)$169$393+$2241.191+$192
doordash.com (US)$35$235+$2000.855+$205
shein.com (US)$203$391+$1881.101+$168
bestbuy.com (US) ⚠️$24$189+$1655.327+$61
petco.com (US)$47$197+$1490.913+$154
walgreens.com (US)$177$275+$991.335+$39
adidas.com (LT)$2$59+$571.191+$57
target.com (US)$316$359+$431.029+$34
合计$5,342$9,284+$3,942+$4,018

4.5 各模块校准前后对比汇总(5 月全月)

模块账面增量流量校准后差异结论
Part 1 新签商家(5 月全月,按订单去重)+$13,172+$13,17204 月基线为 0,无需打折;ROW_NUMBER 去重已修复 froya 双算
Part 2 数据源 A(12 个上涨 · CB-only,去 doordash)+$11,249~+$10,900~−$350etsy +$9,112 / kiwi +$2,602 主导
Part 2 数据源 B(101 个上涨 · CB-only)+$12,945~+$12,500~−$450大量"全新"商家(forhers/walmart 等)
Part 2 数据源 C(197 涨 / 232 跌 · CB-only)+$361~+$300~−$60整体小幅净正,长尾商家有效
Part 3 活动 18(TOP 15)+$4,246+$4,018~−$228原报告 user 限定窗口口径
Part 3 积分保障+$1,265~+$1,100~−$165agoda(0.83) 真增量高,但 allegro(1.04) 等略稀释
Part 3 CBR 调整+$18,235~+$17,500~−$700剔 stubhub 季节性后真增量 ~$10k
Part 3 Impact 静默 30min+$5,072~+$4,000~−$1,072bestbuy(5.3) ratio 异常 + temu_fr/luxuryescapes 等 ratio > 1
合计(账面 vs 校准)~+$66,545~+$60,000~−$6,500整体打折约 9%

Part 1/2 数字已升级到 5 月全月 + CB-only 口径(A 中 shopee/cisalfa 全口径,doordash 已删);Part 3 各活动保持原报告窗口。

注:B/C/积分保障/CBR/Impact 等部分采用估算(按主要 TOP domain 校准 + 其他按全局 0.997 处理)。 对单个 domain 精算请使用公式:真增量 = 5月收入 − 4月收入 × sp_ratio

4.6 校准核心结论

4.7 校准 SQL

SQL — SP 用户数 4 月 vs 5 月对比
-- 全局 CP SP 总用户数
SELECT
  CASE WHEN pt BETWEEN '2026-04-01' AND '2026-04-30' THEN 'Apr_30d'
       WHEN pt BETWEEN '2026-05-01' AND '2026-05-31' THEN 'May_31d' END AS period,
  COUNT(DISTINCT guid) AS sp_users
FROM dws_log_sp_user_shopping_journey_detail_di
WHERE (pt BETWEEN '2026-04-01' AND '2026-04-30' OR pt BETWEEN '2026-05-01' AND '2026-05-31')
GROUP BY period;

-- 各 domain SP ratio
SELECT
  domain,
  COUNT(DISTINCT CASE WHEN pt BETWEEN '2026-04-01' AND '2026-04-30' THEN guid END) AS apr_sp,
  COUNT(DISTINCT CASE WHEN pt BETWEEN '2026-05-01' AND '2026-05-31' THEN guid END) AS may_sp,
  ROUND(COUNT(DISTINCT CASE WHEN pt BETWEEN '2026-05-01' AND '2026-05-31' THEN guid END) * 1.0 /
        NULLIF(COUNT(DISTINCT CASE WHEN pt BETWEEN '2026-04-01' AND '2026-04-30' THEN guid END), 0), 3) AS sp_ratio
FROM dws_log_sp_user_shopping_journey_detail_di
WHERE pt BETWEEN '2026-04-01' AND '2026-05-31'
  AND domain IN ( /* 上涨 domain 清单,见 §4.3 */ )
GROUP BY domain
ORDER BY sp_ratio DESC;