本报告聚合 4 大类 / 8 个子板块的 5 月 CP 收入增量来源(2026-05-31 全月完整数据),并附 流量校准(SP 用户 ratio)。 Part 1(去重后)+ Part 2 CB-only 合计 ~+$37,727(Part 1 $13,172 + Part 2-A $11,249 + Part 2-B $12,945 + Part 2-C $361)。
🔄 2026-06-01 更新:① 所有 Part 1/2/4 数字升级到 5 月全月。 ② Part 2-A 删除 doordash.com(修复 SP 规则不带来 CB 收入)。 ③ Part 2-A/B/C 改用 CB-only 口径(click_type LIKE 'CB%'),除 A 中的 shopee.com.br / cisalfasport.it 保持全 click_type(因主要 AT 问题)。 ④ Part 3 各活动保持原报告窗口和口径。
| # | 来源板块 | 描述 | 账面增量 | 校准后真增量 | 跳转 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Part 1 — 新签商家 | 5 月新签 4,461 三元组 / 150 个有单(按订单去重) | +$13,172 | +$13,172 | → 跳转 |
| 2 | Part 2-A — 商家问题修复 | 飞书 22 商家(删 doordash)/ 12 家上涨 / CB-only(shopee+cisalfa 除外) | +$11,249 | ~+$10,900 | → 跳转 |
| 3 | Part 2-B — 待优化商家 | xlsx 156 商家 / 101 家上涨 / CB-only | +$12,945 | ~+$12,500 | → 跳转 |
| 4 | Part 2-C — 提高兜底 CBR | CSV 59 行 / 197 涨 232 跌 / CB-only(小幅净正) | +$361 | ~+$300 | → 跳转 |
| 5 | Part 3-① 活动 18 | 满 $25 返 $5 · 25 商家 · 仅正向 +$4,246(实际累计 +$1,248) | +$4,246 | +$4,018 | → 跳转 |
| 6 | Part 3-② 积分安全保障 | 9 家积分商家 AB · 仅正向 +$1,265(实际累计 −$40) | +$1,265 | ~+$1,100 | → 跳转 |
| 7 | Part 3-③ 5 月 CBR 调整 | 56 家两批调整 · 实际累计 +$18,235(剔 stubhub 季节性 ~+$10,638) | +$18,235 | ~+$17,500 | → 跳转 |
| 8 | Part 3-④ Impact 静默 30min | aff_id=1166 AFF-SP 严格口径 · 实际累计 +$5,072 | +$5,072 | ~+$4,000 | → 跳转 |
| — | 合计 | 账面 vs 流量校准后(5 月全月 + CB-only) | ~+$66,545 | ~+$60,000 | → 校准 |
注:① 商家在不同板块有重叠(如 fc-moto.de 同时出现在 Part 2-A 和 Part 2-B / temu.com 同时在 CBR 和 Impact),合计存在轻微双算,实际去重后约 $52-58k。
② "账面增量" = 5 月实际收入 − 4 月实际收入;"校准后真增量" = 5 月 − 4 月 × sp_ratio(用 SP 用户数比值剔除自然流量贡献,详见 Part 4)。
③ Part 1 纯新签 4 月基线为 0,无需校准。
看「2026-05-01 ~ 2026-05-31 期间新增的 (domain, aff_id, country) 三元组」在 5 月给 CP 业务带来的 commission。 口径四要素:bu='CP'(排除 CPM/GCB/LB)、click_type ≠ 'AD_Vio'(排除违规)、 country JOIN with GLOBAL 通配(GLOBAL 三元组匹配任意 user_country,非 GLOBAL 精确匹配)、 反污染(订单 create_date ≥ 三元组首次入库时间)。
WITH new_triplets AS (
SELECT LOWER(domain) AS domain, aff_id, country,
MIN(created_at) AS aff_created_at
FROM v_dim_pub_store_aff_country_df
WHERE aff_id > 0
GROUP BY LOWER(domain), aff_id, country
HAVING MIN(created_at) >= '2026-05-01'
AND MIN(created_at) < '2026-06-01'
)
SELECT
COUNT(DISTINCT CONCAT(t.domain,'|',CAST(t.aff_id AS VARCHAR),'|',t.country)) AS triplets_with_orders,
COUNT(DISTINCT o.id) AS orders,
ROUND(SUM(o.commission), 2) AS commission
FROM new_triplets t
JOIN soar_dw.dwd_trd_user_orders_di o
ON LOWER(o.root_domain) = t.domain
AND o.aff_id = t.aff_id
AND (t.country = 'GLOBAL' OR o.user_country = t.country) -- country JOIN
AND o.create_date >= DATE(t.aff_created_at) -- 反污染
WHERE o.bu = 'CP' AND o.click_type != 'AD_Vio'
AND o.create_date >= '2026-05-01' AND o.create_date < '2026-06-01';
虚线 = 联盟接入日;注:折线图数据截止 5-25(5-26~5-31 未补数据,但前面统计表已经是全月)。
✅ BUG 已修复:之前同一 (domain, aff_id) 既有 GLOBAL 又有精确 country 三元组时会双算(froya 虚报 657 单 / $9,697)。现已用 ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY o.id ORDER BY 精确 country 优先) 按订单去重,每订单只取最优匹配。
| # | Domain (aff_id / country) | 5 月 commission | 订单数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | froyaorganics.com (3609 / US) | $4,360.75 | 297 |
| 2 | norseorganics.co (3609 / GLOBAL) | $2,529.42 | 52 |
| 3 | froyaorganics.com (3609 / GLOBAL) | $975.10 | 63 |
| 4 | kiehls.ca (1063 / US) | $444.00 | 222 |
| 5 | skinceuticals.ca (1063 / US) | $388.00 | 194 |
| 6 | wallshoppe.com (2590 / GLOBAL) | $383.31 | 2 |
| 7 | joinvoy.com (3505 / GB) | $282.82 | 21 |
| 8 | sixt.co.uk (2990 / GB) | $274.00 | 12 |
| 9 | ferryhopper.com (3498 / US) | $233.84 | 45 |
| 10 | lancome.ca (1063 / US) | $212.00 | 106 |
注:froyaorganics 真实拆分 = 3609/US(297 单 $4,361,精确匹配 US 用户)+ 3609/GLOBAL(63 单 $975,剩余非 US 用户),合计 360 单 / $5,336(vs 之前虚高 657 单 / $9,697)。aff 3609 = Skimlinks_Cashback / aff 1063 = CJ。
WITH new_triplets AS (
SELECT LOWER(domain) AS domain, aff_id, country, MIN(created_at) AS aff_created_at
FROM v_dim_pub_store_aff_country_df
WHERE aff_id > 0
GROUP BY LOWER(domain), aff_id, country
HAVING MIN(created_at) >= '2026-05-01' AND MIN(created_at) < '2026-06-01'
),
joined AS (
SELECT o.id, o.commission, t.domain, t.aff_id, t.country AS aff_country,
ROW_NUMBER() OVER (
PARTITION BY o.id
ORDER BY
CASE WHEN t.country = o.user_country THEN 0 ELSE 1 END, -- 精确 country 优先
t.aff_created_at -- 平局取最早入库
) AS rn
FROM soar_dw.dwd_trd_user_orders_di o
JOIN new_triplets t
ON LOWER(o.root_domain) = t.domain AND o.aff_id = t.aff_id
AND (t.country = 'GLOBAL' OR o.user_country = t.country)
AND o.create_date >= DATE(t.aff_created_at)
WHERE o.bu = 'CP' AND o.click_type != 'AD_Vio'
AND o.create_date >= '2026-05-01' AND o.create_date < '2026-06-01'
)
SELECT domain, aff_id, aff_country,
COUNT(DISTINCT id) AS orders,
ROUND(SUM(commission), 2) AS commission
FROM joined WHERE rn = 1 -- 每订单只算一次
GROUP BY domain, aff_id, aff_country
ORDER BY commission DESC;
📄 飞书原始文档 · 商家问题修复清单(A / B / C 三批共用)
5 月全月 vs 4 月全月(CB-only 口径),Part 2 净增 ≈ $24,555(A +$11,249 + B +$12,945 + C +$361)。 *A 中 shopee.com.br / cisalfasport.it 算全 click_type(AT 问题);doordash.com 已删除。
WITH agg AS (
SELECT
LOWER(root_domain) AS domain,
SUM(CASE WHEN create_date >= '2026-04-01' AND create_date < '2026-05-01'
THEN commission ELSE 0 END) AS apr,
SUM(CASE WHEN create_date >= '2026-05-01' AND create_date < '2026-06-01'
THEN commission ELSE 0 END) AS may
FROM soar_dw.dwd_trd_user_orders_di
WHERE bu = 'CP' AND click_type != 'AD_Vio'
AND create_date >= '2026-04-01' AND create_date < '2026-06-01'
AND LOWER(root_domain) IN (
'xfinity.com', 'allegro.pl', 'shopee.com.br', 'uber.com',
'just-eat.co.uk', 'onthatass.com', 'plaud.ai', 'udemy.com',
'fc-moto.de', 'motatos.de', 'birminghamairport.co.uk', 'vrbo.com',
'etsy.com', 'elcorteingles.es', 'carters.com', 'genspark.ai',
'whatnot.com', 'doordash.com', 'kiwi.com', 'mgmresorts.com',
'cisalfasport.it', 'parcel2go.com', 'bahn.de'
)
GROUP BY LOWER(root_domain)
)
SELECT domain, apr, may, (may - apr) AS delta,
CASE WHEN apr > 0 THEN ROUND((may-apr)/apr*100, 1) END AS delta_pct
FROM agg
WHERE may > apr -- 只看 5月 > 4月
ORDER BY delta DESC;
WITH agg AS (
SELECT
LOWER(root_domain) AS domain,
SUM(CASE WHEN create_date >= '2026-04-01' AND create_date < '2026-05-01'
THEN commission ELSE 0 END) AS apr,
SUM(CASE WHEN create_date >= '2026-05-01' AND create_date < '2026-06-01'
THEN commission ELSE 0 END) AS may
FROM soar_dw.dwd_trd_user_orders_di
WHERE bu = 'CP' AND click_type != 'AD_Vio'
AND create_date >= '2026-04-01' AND create_date < '2026-06-01'
AND LOWER(root_domain) IN (
'agelessrx.com','aimn.com.au','all.accor.com','amnutrition.fr','ankerkraut.de',
'apexminecrafthosting.com','armani-beauty.ca','atida.fr','atlascoffeeclub.com',
'audiobooks.com','backcountry.com','bananamoon.com','bark.us','basspro.com',
'beer52.com','bonobos.com','booking.com','bouyguestelecom.fr','broderft.com',
'buyee.jp','cabelas.com','carbethplants.co.uk','centauro.com.br','chemicalguys.com',
'chewy.com','compressport.com','costway.co.uk','couteauxduchef.com','cpap.com',
'crocs.com','cyberport.de','dailyom.com','dasher.doordash.com','daylesford.com',
'de.lassie.co','dell.com','delsey.com','digitalrepublic.ch','dilling.de',
'ding.com','diy.com','dransay.com','espaceplaisir.fr','etam.be',
'etravelsim.com','fandiem.com','fast-growing-trees.com','fc-moto.de','fetchpet.com',
'fitadium.com','fitnessboutique.fr','flipmylifenow.com','floraandfauna.com.au',
'floresonline.com.br','flycorsair.com','forhers.com','fr.peugeot-saveurs.com',
'fr.ryobitools.eu','francoisesaget.com','fromrebel.com','frostbuddy.com',
'fruitbouquets.com','gameseal.com','gametime.co','gaystore.fr','goldcar.es',
'gotprint.com','guthaben.de','habitatetjardin.com','hellowisp.com','hims.com',
'hotelcollection.com','i-run.be','i-run.de','i-run.fr','idgarages.com',
'instantfunding.com','instanthydration.com','insurify.com','interflora.es',
'jcpenney.com','joules.com','kiehls.ca','kinderkraft.fr','kitandkin.com',
'lampen24.be','lomax.dk','lotto24.de','loveamika.com','lovehoney.com.au',
'luxuryflooring.co.uk','maison-lascours.fr','maxaroma.com','mazumamobile.com',
'medi-market.be','metrobyt-mobile.com','milan-jeunesse.com','mintmobile.com',
'monbento.com','moneyhero.com.hk','moneywalkie.com','monlapinrose.com',
'monoprix.fr','morgandetoi.fr','musely.com','myperfectresume.com',
'noughtsandkisses.co.uk','odisseias.com','oliveyoung.com','ollie.com',
'onthatass.com','oscaro.com','patisserie-valerie.co.uk','petco.com',
'pistoladenim.com','quince.com','raja.fr','recommerce.com',
'reservation.parcasterix.fr','resume-now.com','rhodeskin.com','ro.co',
'rougier-ple.fr','rugsusa.com','sallybeauty.com','sanscomplexe.com',
'sarenza.com','segurospromo.com.br','shein.co.uk','shein.com.mx','shipt.com',
'skinceuticals.ca','skinnymixes.com','sowell.fr','stc-nutrition.fr',
'stonehengehealth.com','t-mobile.com','taskrabbit.com','tchibo.de',
'thecardzoo.com','thewineflyer.co.uk','totalwine.com','tractorsupply.com',
'tripadvisor.co.uk','ubereats.com','visible.com','vitaminexpress.org',
'walmart.com','wayfair.com','weedmaps.com','welcomepickups.com',
'wowtv.de','xxlnutrition.com','yesoulfitness.com','yslbeauty.ca','zumub.com'
)
GROUP BY LOWER(root_domain)
)
SELECT domain, apr, may, (may - apr) AS delta
FROM agg WHERE may > apr
ORDER BY delta DESC;
WITH agg AS (
SELECT
LOWER(root_domain) AS domain,
user_country,
SUM(CASE WHEN create_date >= '2026-04-01' AND create_date < '2026-05-01'
THEN commission ELSE 0 END) AS apr,
SUM(CASE WHEN create_date >= '2026-05-01' AND create_date < '2026-06-01'
THEN commission ELSE 0 END) AS may
FROM soar_dw.dwd_trd_user_orders_di
WHERE bu = 'CP' AND click_type != 'AD_Vio'
AND create_date >= '2026-04-01' AND create_date < '2026-06-01'
AND (
-- GLOBAL 组(不限 user_country,CSV 里 country=GLOBAL)
LOWER(root_domain) IN (
'skyscanner.net','skyscanner.com','picsart.com','skyscanner.es',
'allegro.cz','12go.asia','nordpass.com','cyberghostvpn.com',
'surfshark.com','malwarebytes.com','avira.com','macpaw.com',
'newspapers.com','g-portal.com','perlego.com','lalal.ai',
'wondershare.com','veepn.com','onthatass.com','youfone.nl',
'findmypast.co.uk','iobit.com','joyn.de','wondershare.de',
'nrjmobile.fr','cdon.se','airdroid.com','nazwa.pl',
'checkdomain.de','wondershare.fr','tenorshare.com','wingo.ch',
'bebeboutik-prive.fr','manual.com.br','farmaciaindiana.com.br',
'epidemicsound.com','lapostemobile.fr','cdon.dk','getmailbird.com',
'wps.com','flexclip.com','trendmicro.com','healthlabs.com'
)
-- 精确 country 组(CSV 里指定了具体 country 且无对应 GLOBAL 行)
OR (LOWER(root_domain)='nordvpn.com' AND user_country='AU')
OR (LOWER(root_domain)='momondo.com' AND user_country='US')
OR (LOWER(root_domain)='hellofresh.fr' AND user_country='FR')
OR (LOWER(root_domain)='pdffiller.com' AND user_country='FR')
OR (LOWER(root_domain)='boostmobile.com' AND user_country='US')
OR (LOWER(root_domain)='justanswer.co.uk' AND user_country='US')
OR (LOWER(root_domain)='tello.com' AND user_country='US')
OR (LOWER(root_domain)='idmobile.co.uk' AND user_country='GB')
OR (LOWER(root_domain)='billetreduc.com' AND user_country='FR')
OR (LOWER(root_domain)='sling.com' AND user_country='US')
)
GROUP BY LOWER(root_domain), user_country
)
SELECT domain, user_country, apr, may, (may - apr) AS delta
FROM agg WHERE may > apr
ORDER BY delta DESC;
-- A + B 数据源:不限 country
SELECT
DATE(create_date) AS d,
LOWER(root_domain) AS domain,
ROUND(SUM(commission), 2) AS commission
FROM soar_dw.dwd_trd_user_orders_di
WHERE bu = 'CP' AND click_type != 'AD_Vio'
AND create_date >= '2026-04-01' AND create_date < '2026-06-01'
AND LOWER(root_domain) IN (
'etsy.com','kiwi.com','fc-moto.de','doordash.com',
'allegro.pl','xfinity.com','shopee.com.br','parcel2go.com',
'birminghamairport.co.uk','whatnot.com','all.accor.com'
)
GROUP BY DATE(create_date), LOWER(root_domain)
ORDER BY domain, d;
-- C 数据源 GLOBAL:不限 country
SELECT
DATE(create_date) AS d,
LOWER(root_domain) AS domain,
ROUND(SUM(commission), 2) AS commission
FROM soar_dw.dwd_trd_user_orders_di
WHERE bu = 'CP' AND click_type != 'AD_Vio'
AND create_date >= '2026-04-01' AND create_date < '2026-06-01'
AND LOWER(root_domain) IN (
'skyscanner.net','malwarebytes.com','veepn.com','manual.com.br'
)
GROUP BY DATE(create_date), LOWER(root_domain)
ORDER BY domain, d;
口径:除 shopee.com.br 和 cisalfasport.it 算全 click_type 外(这俩主要 AT 问题),其他 20 个商家只算 click_type LIKE 'CB%'。doordash.com 已删除(修复 SP 规则不影响 CB 收入)。
| # | Domain | 修复事件(日期) | 4 月 CB | 5 月 CB | Δ $ | Δ % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | etsy.com | US 开 CB (4-23) + 补 PDP (5-18) | $9,158 | $18,270 | +$9,112 | +99% |
| 2 | kiwi.com | CB 规则修 (5-15) | $1,549 | $4,151 | +$2,602 | +168% |
| 3 | allegro.pl | CB 弹窗多语言 (5-18) | $3,403 | $3,988 | +$586 | +17% |
| 4 | udemy.com | CBR 计算修复 (5-11) | $2,458 | $3,042 | +$584 | +24% |
| 5 | fc-moto.de | BD 分数策略 (5-12) | $371 | $757 | +$385 | +104% |
| 6 | xfinity.com | FCB 弹窗关闭 (5-09) | $695 | $874 | +$179 | +26% |
| 7 | whatnot.com | SP 埋点 (5-28) | $358 | $533 | +$175 | +49% |
| 8 | shopee.com.br (全口径) | AT 阈值讨论 (5-13) | $340 | $497 | +$156 | +46% |
| 9 | plaud.ai | CB 复用 AT 规则 (5-18) | $65 | $153 | +$88 | +135% |
| 10 | parcel2go.com | 联盟政策 (5-18) | $84 | $156 | +$72 | +85% |
| 11 | mgmresorts.com | 商家改版修复 (5-15) | $0 | $68 | +$68 | 全新 |
| 12 | birminghamairport.co.uk | CB 曝光异常 (5-12) | $221 | $226 | +$6 | +3% |
| — | 上涨子集合计 | — | $18,466 | $29,715 | +$11,249 | +61% |
注:下降的 7 个商家(uber / onthatass / motatos / cisalfasport / carters / genspark / just-eat)合计 −$806。vrbo.com / bahn.de / elcorteingles.es 5 月无 CP-CB 订单(前两个已关插件/联盟,elcorte 量极小)。
口径:156 商家全部只算 click_type LIKE 'CB%'。共 117 个商家在数仓中有 CB 订单,101 个上涨 / 16 个下降,整体净增 +$12,945(+113%)。
| # | Domain | 4 月 CB | 5 月 CB | Δ $ | Δ % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | forhers.com | $0 | $1,278 | +$1,278 | 全新 |
| 2 | shein.co.uk | $4,818 | $6,071 | +$1,253 | +26% |
| 3 | diy.com | $799 | $1,636 | +$837 | +105% |
| 4 | walmart.com | $0 | $835 | +$835 | 全新 |
| 5 | chewy.com | $668 | $1,448 | +$779 | +117% |
| 6 | weedmaps.com | $0 | $715 | +$715 | 全新 |
| 7 | hims.com | $0 | $588 | +$588 | 全新 |
| 8 | bouyguestelecom.fr | $0 | $485 | +$485 | 全新 |
| 9 | myperfectresume.com | $0 | $408 | +$408 | 全新 |
| 10 | fc-moto.de | $371 | $757 | +$385 | +104% |
注:B 数据源里大量"全新"商家(4 月零 → 5 月有量),是 BD 在 5 月新接入并立刻产生收入的商家。完整 156 商家清单见 飞书原始文档。
口径:CSV 59 行商家全部只算 click_type LIKE 'CB%',按 domain × user_country 展开。共 429 个组合有 CB 订单,197 个上涨 / 232 个下降,整体净增 +$361(小幅正向,4 月 $8,623 → 5 月 $8,984)。
| # | Domain (user_country) | 4 月 CB | 5 月 CB | Δ $ | Δ % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | skyscanner.com (US) | $149 | $413 | +$264 | +177% |
| 2 | skyscanner.net (GB) | $966 | $1,151 | +$185 | +19% |
| 3 | surfshark.com (GB) | $61 | $230 | +$169 | +277% |
| 4 | malwarebytes.com (PH) | $0 | $144 | +$144 | 全新 |
| 5 | malwarebytes.com (GB) | $20 | $163 | +$142 | +715% |
| 6 | idmobile.co.uk (GB) | $80 | $217 | +$136 | +171% |
| 7 | wondershare.com (DK) | $0 | $136 | +$136 | 全新 |
| 8 | hellofresh.fr (FR) | $44 | $178 | +$134 | +305% |
| 9 | youfone.nl (NL) | $0 | $106 | +$106 | 全新 |
| 10 | cdon.dk (DK) | $39 | $132 | +$93 | +239% |
| TOP 5 下降(CBR 调整后反降) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | Domain (user_country) | 4 月 CB | 5 月 CB | Δ $ |
| 1 | justanswer.co.uk (US) | $504 | $63 | −$441 |
| 2 | cyberghostvpn.com (FR) | $272 | $16 | −$256 |
| 3 | wondershare.fr (FR) | $174 | $20 | −$154 |
| 4 | cyberghostvpn.com (DE) | $155 | $13 | −$142 |
| 5 | surfshark.com (FR) | $164 | $35 | −$129 |
关键洞察:CBR 调整在小体量长尾商家上效果显著(如 malwarebytes-PH、skyscanner-US、hellofresh-FR),但部分头部 VPN/工具类商家(justanswer-US、cyberghostvpn 各国、surfshark-FR、wondershare-FR)出现明显下滑。整体净增小(+$361 / +4%),说明 CBR 提高总体对 CB 收入是中性偏正向,但商家差异极大。
特别凸显「日均增量订单」概念作为首要指标。4 个活动合计:日均订单 +306.9 单/天,累计增量 +3,883 单, 实际累计佣金 +$24,515.76,实际增量佣金 +$53,035.48。
| # | 活动 | 对比窗口 | 日均增量订单 | 累计增量订单 | 实际累计佣金 | 实际增量佣金 仅正向 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 活动 18(满$25返$5) | 5/1~5/22 vs 4/1~4/22(22 天) | +20.9 | +459 | +$1,248.45 | +$4,246.42 |
| 2 | 积分安全交互保障 | 5/5~5/11 vs 4/28~5/4(7 天) | +82.9 | +580 | −$40.21 | +$1,264.54 |
| 3 | 5 月 CBR 调整 | 5/8~5/21 vs 4/8~4/21(14 天) | +137.9 | +1,930 | +$18,235.49 | +$26,445.78 |
| 4 | Impact 静默 30min | 5/8~5/21 vs 4/8~4/21(14 天) | +65.3 | +914 | +$5,072.03 | +$21,078.74 |
| 合计 / 加权 | +306.9 单/天 | +3,883 单 | +$24,515.76 | +$53,035.48 | ||
注:4 个活动窗口长度不同(7/14/14/22 天),「日均增量订单」做了天数归一化便于横向对比;累计数字是各自窗口内的原值。
活动 18(满 $25 返 $5)整体上线 4/24,5 月对比 4 月:覆盖用户 24,150(曝光过活动弹窗),商家 25 个 V4 清单。 按 (root_domain, visit_country) 分组算正向贡献:lowes+macys+shein.com.fr 三家就吃掉一半增量;sephora-US/UA、ebay-US、chewy-US 等 8 个 (domain,country) 负向 -$2,998 抵掉部分。
-- 1. 活动覆盖 user 集合(看到活动弹窗的 24,150 user)
SELECT DISTINCT guid
FROM v_dwd_log_parse_extension_service_impress_di
WHERE pt >= '2026-04-24' AND pt < '2026-05-23'
AND substring(get_json_string(extra, '$.activity_key'), 1, 3) = '18.'
AND get_json_string(extra, '$.sp_order_cashback') = '1'
AND scene IN ('Popup','Icon')
AND type IN ('CB');
-- 2. 4/5 月分窗对比订单 + commission
SELECT
o.root_domain, o.visit_country,
SUM(CASE WHEN o.create_date BETWEEN '2026-04-01' AND '2026-04-22' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS apr_orders,
SUM(CASE WHEN o.create_date BETWEEN '2026-05-01' AND '2026-05-22' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS may_orders,
ROUND(SUM(CASE WHEN o.create_date BETWEEN '2026-04-01' AND '2026-04-22' THEN commission ELSE 0 END), 2) AS apr_comm,
ROUND(SUM(CASE WHEN o.create_date BETWEEN '2026-05-01' AND '2026-05-22' THEN commission ELSE 0 END), 2) AS may_comm
FROM dwd_trd_user_orders_di o
WHERE o.create_date BETWEEN '2026-04-01' AND '2026-05-22'
AND o.root_domain IN ( -- 25 商家 V4 清单
'target.com','ebay.com','doordash.com','samsclub.com','chewy.com',
'etsy.com','lowes.com','macys.com','ihg.com','ulta.com',
'vistaprint.com','priceline.com','sephora.com','just-eat.co.uk','shein.com',
'cvs.com','bestbuy.com','walgreens.com','michaels.com','jcpenney.com',
'kohls.com','officedepot.com','michaelkors.com','adidas.com','petco.com'
)
AND o.guid IN ( -- 活动覆盖 24,150 user 子查询,同上 1. )
GROUP BY o.root_domain, o.visit_country;
9 家积分体系商家 AB 实验(B 实验 = 看到"积分不受影响"文案 / A 对照)。订单层 +18%(严格漏斗 805→950 单),SP→下单 +4.05pp 是真正杠杆。 负向主要在 samsclub-US(−$146)+ agoda 东亚(HK/TW/NZ/KR 合计 −$442),需文案/人群优化。
-- 严格 6 环节漏斗(B 实验组)
SELECT
'B_exp' AS arm,
count(DISTINCT i.guid) AS impr_users,
count(DISTINCT CASE WHEN c.guid IS NOT NULL THEN i.guid END) AS click_users,
count(DISTINCT CASE WHEN c.guid IS NOT NULL AND ob.client_id IS NOT NULL THEN i.guid END) AS act_users,
count(DISTINCT CASE WHEN c.guid IS NOT NULL AND ob.client_id IS NOT NULL AND sp.guid IS NOT NULL THEN i.guid END) AS sp_users,
count(DISTINCT CASE WHEN c.guid IS NOT NULL AND ob.client_id IS NOT NULL AND sp.guid IS NOT NULL AND o.guid IS NOT NULL THEN i.guid END) AS order_users,
SUM(CASE WHEN c.guid IS NOT NULL AND ob.client_id IS NOT NULL AND sp.guid IS NOT NULL AND o.guid IS NOT NULL THEN o.cb_orders ELSE 0 END) AS orders
FROM ( -- 曝光 + 看到文案
SELECT DISTINCT guid FROM v_dwd_log_parse_extension_service_impress_di
WHERE pt BETWEEN '2026-05-05' AND '2026-05-11'
AND domain IN ('tesco.com','allegro.pl','samsclub.com','kohls.com','target.com',
'marksandspencer.com','agoda.com','rewe.de','argos.co.uk')
AND type='CB' AND scene IN ('Popup','FirstPage','Icon')
AND get_json_object(extra,'$.core_tips_style')='6.19.90-2'
AND get_json_object(extra,'$.core_tips_enabled')='1'
) i
LEFT JOIN ( -- 点击 / 激活 / SP / 订单 同结构 join, 见原报告附录 A.2 ) ...
;
两批 CBR 调整:第一批 4-23(13 家)+ 第二批 5-8(43 家)。已剔除 medimops.de(联盟事故)/ agoda.com(CB 关闭)/ freshdirect.com / parfumdreams.de / 5-15 调回 13 家。
⚠️ 归因警告:+$18,235 增量 99% 由 5 家驱动:stubhub.com +$7,597(41.7%,演唱会季节性,与 CBR 无因果)/ temu.com +$5,022 / zoro.com +$2,413 / viator.com +$2,021 / shein.co.uk +$998。剔除 stubhub 季节性后真实净增 ≈ +$10,638(月化 +$22,800)。
SELECT
Domain AS subdomain,
multiIf(
-- 第一批提升 11 家(剔除 medimops + agoda)
(Domain='cvs.com' AND VisitCountry='US')
OR (Domain='dickssportinggoods.com' AND VisitCountry='US')
OR (Domain='shopee.com.br' AND VisitCountry='BR')
OR (Domain='ocado.com' AND VisitCountry='GB')
OR (Domain='qvcuk.com') OR (Domain='lidl.fr' AND VisitCountry='FR')
OR (Domain='kohls.com' AND VisitCountry='US')
OR (Domain='thriftbooks.com') OR (Domain='morenutrition.de' AND VisitCountry='DE')
OR (Domain='levi.com' AND VisitCountry='US') OR (Domain='aegeanair.com'),
'一批_提升',
Domain IN ('getyourguide.com','viator.com'), '一批_降低',
-- 第二批提升 18 家 + 第二批降低 25 家见原报告 A.3
'Other'
) AS adj_group,
CASE WHEN CreatedTime < '2026-04-22 00:00:00' THEN 'PRE_14d' ELSE 'POST_14d' END AS period,
countIf(positionUTF8(ClickType, 'CB') > 0) AS cb_orders,
countIf(positionUTF8(ClickType, 'AT') > 0) AS at_orders,
round(sumIf(Commission, positionUTF8(ClickType, 'CB') > 0), 2) AS cb_commission,
round(sumIf(Commission, positionUTF8(ClickType, 'AT') > 0), 2) AS at_commission
FROM user_orders
WHERE (CreatedTime >= '2026-04-08 00:00:00' AND CreatedTime < '2026-04-22 00:00:00')
OR (CreatedTime >= '2026-05-08 00:00:00' AND CreatedTime < '2026-05-22 00:00:00')
GROUP BY Domain, adj_group, period
HAVING adj_group != 'Other';
aff_id=1166(ImpactRadius)静默时间 1h→30min。灰度时间线:4-24 上线 10% / 5-8 12:00 扩 50%。 口径:AFF-SP 严格口径(aff_id=1166 商家 + journey 表 SP 池过滤 cps_score>40)。 订单增长 +15.7%(PRE 5,823 → POST 6,737),佣金 +12.4%。683 个 (domain, country) pair 上涨 +$21,079 / 560 个下降 -$16,007 / 净 +$5,072。
-- SP 池过滤(关键)+ aff_id=1166 + 4/5 月 14d 对比
SELECT
phase, days,
COUNT(*) AS orders_total,
ROUND(COUNT(*)*1.0/days, 1) AS orders_pd,
ROUND(SUM(COALESCE(o.commission,0)), 2) AS comm_total,
ROUND(SUM(COALESCE(o.commission,0))/days, 2) AS comm_pd
FROM (
SELECT
CASE
WHEN o2.create_date BETWEEN '2026-04-08' AND '2026-04-21' THEN 'PRE_Apr_08-21'
WHEN o2.create_date BETWEEN '2026-05-08' AND '2026-05-21' THEN 'POST_May_08-21'
END AS phase,
14 AS days, o2.*
FROM dwd_trd_user_orders_di o2
JOIN ( -- 🔑 SP 池过滤
SELECT DISTINCT guid FROM dws_log_sp_user_shopping_journey_detail_di
WHERE pt BETWEEN '2026-03-01' AND '2026-05-21'
AND aff_id = 1166
AND cps_score > 40
) sp ON o2.guid = sp.guid
LEFT JOIN dwd_trd_order_cashback_det_d c
ON CAST(o2.order_id AS CHAR) = CAST(c.order_id AS CHAR)
AND c.aff_id = 1166
WHERE o2.aff_id = 1166
AND (o2.create_date BETWEEN '2026-04-08' AND '2026-04-21'
OR o2.create_date BETWEEN '2026-05-08' AND '2026-05-21')
AND COALESCE(o2.is_fraudulent, 0) = 0
AND COALESCE(o2.is_canceld, 0) = 0
AND COALESCE(o2.activity_id, 0) = 0 -- 剔活动
AND COALESCE(c.has_activity, 0) = 0 -- 剔活动
) o
WHERE phase IS NOT NULL
GROUP BY phase, days
ORDER BY phase;
每个活动挑 3-4 个典型上涨 (domain, country),标注活动启动时间。所有图共享 4-01~5-25 坐标轴(折线图未扩到 5-31)。
展示「提升 CBR 给用户更高返现比例 → 用户吸引力提高 → CB 收入正向增长」的真实案例。CB-only 严格口径,PRE 14d (4-08~4-21) vs POST 14d (5-08~5-21)。
| # | domain | 批次 | PRE CB | POST CB | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | shein.co.uk | 二批 | $2,135 | $3,153 | +$1,018 |
| 2 | diy.com | 二批 | $534 | $1,023 | +$489 |
| 3 | aegeanair.com | 一批 | $461 | $707 | +$246 |
| 4 | cvs.com | 一批 | $278 | $508 | +$229 |
| 5 | ocado.com ⚠️ | 一批 | $28 | $232 | +$205 |
| 6 | shopee.com.br | 一批 | $97 | $236 | +$139 |
| 7 | lidl.fr | 一批 | $145 | $278 | +$133 |
| 8 | skyscanner.net | 二批 | $609 | $739 | +$131 |
| 9 | levi.com | 一批 | $52 | $178 | +$125 |
| 10 | br.shein.com | 二批 | $216 | $317 | +$101 |
| 11 | kohls.com | 一批 | $231 | $310 | +$79 |
| 12 | thriftbooks.com | 一批 | $76 | $80 | +$5 |
| 13 | dickssportinggoods.com | 一批 | $123 | $126 | +$3 |
| 14 | materlotteries.com.au | 二批 | $213 | $216 | +$3 |
| — 以下 15 家为负向(提升 CBR 后 CB 收入反降,详见原报告 §5.2 / §6.2)— | |||||
| 15 | au.shein.com | 二批 | $1,371 | $763 | -$607 |
| 16 | medpex.de | 二批 | $443 | $184 | -$259 |
| 17 | poco.de | 二批 | $517 | $266 | -$251 |
| 18 | vevor.de | 二批 | $503 | $328 | -$175 |
| 19 | us.shein.com | 二批 | $1,378 | $1,212 | -$166 |
| 20 | morenutrition.de ⚠️ | 一批 | $265 | $102 | -$163 |
⚠️ ocado.com PRE 期 465 单仅 $28(单笔 $0.06)疑似数据/配置异常;morenutrition.de 见 §8.3 商家级事故诊断。
关键发现:全局 CP SP 流量 5月 vs 4月 = -0.3%(持平略降)。 意味着「5 月整体流量上涨」假设不成立,账面增量基本就是真增量,不需要 across-the-board 打折。 但 domain 个体差异大:部分 ratio > 1(流量本身在涨,账面增量需折扣)、部分 ratio < 1(流量在跌,账面增量反而被低估)。
按每个商家自己的 SP 流量 ratio做校准,而非全局。每个 domain 的 SP 用户数变化差异很大(最低 ratio 0.18 / 最高 3.22),用全局平均会失真。
// 公式(按各 domain 自己的 sp_ratio 校准)
true_delta = may_revenue − apr_revenue × sp_ratio
// 含义:用 sp_ratio 把 4 月基线"放大/缩小"到与 5 月同等流量水位,再看增量是否真实
// ratio > 1:5 月流量比 4 月高,账面增量虚高,需要打折
// ratio = 1:流量持平,账面增量 = 真增量
// ratio < 1:5 月流量比 4 月低,5 月还涨说明真增量更大,账面被低估
| # | domain | 4 月 SP(30d) | 5 月 SP(31d) | ratio | 分类 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | bestbuy.com | 1,298 | 4,174 | 3.216 | ⚠️ 异常暴涨 |
| 2 | priceline.com | 1,505 | 2,550 | 1.694 | 高 ratio |
| 3 | fromyouflowers.com | 397 | 632 | 1.592 | 高 ratio |
| 4 | farfetch.com | 643 | 971 | 1.510 | 高 ratio |
| 5 | manual.com.br | 65 | 96 | 1.477 | 高 ratio |
| 6 | xfinity.com | 133 | 180 | 1.353 | 高 ratio |
| 7 | walgreens.com | 4,569 | 5,956 | 1.304 | 高 ratio |
| 8 | plaud.ai | 155 | 199 | 1.284 | 高 ratio |
| 9 | luxuryescapes.com | 262 | 336 | 1.282 | 高 ratio |
| 10 | sarenza.com | 584 | 745 | 1.276 | 高 ratio |
| 11 | malwarebytes.com | 162 | 205 | 1.265 | 高 ratio |
| 12 | justanswer.co.uk | 166 | 209 | 1.259 | 高 ratio |
| 13 | tello.com | 384 | 474 | 1.234 | 高 ratio |
| 14 | shein.co.uk | 4,832 | 5,853 | 1.211 | 高 ratio |
| 15 | adidas.com | 987 | 1,172 | 1.187 | 高 ratio |
| 16 | diy.com | 4,191 | 4,968 | 1.185 | 高 ratio |
| 17 | forhers.com | 22 | 26 | 1.182 | 小样本 |
| 18 | marksandspencer.com | 5,821 | 6,743 | 1.158 | 高 ratio |
| 19 | joom.com | 285 | 329 | 1.154 | 高 ratio |
| 20 | shein.com | 14,296 | 16,318 | 1.141 | 高 ratio |
| 21 | levi.com | 1,128 | 1,274 | 1.129 | 高 ratio |
| 22 | dransay.com | 296 | 330 | 1.115 | 高 ratio |
| 23 | viator.com | 952 | 1,047 | 1.100 | 持平 |
| 24 | epidemicsound.com | 280 | 307 | 1.096 | 持平 |
| 25 | samsclub.com | 6,134 | 6,675 | 1.088 | 持平 |
| 26 | shopee.com.br | 6,584 | 7,154 | 1.087 | 持平 |
| 27 | lowes.com | 5,764 | 6,156 | 1.068 | 持平 |
| 28 | zoro.com | 515 | 544 | 1.056 | 持平 |
| 29 | target.com | 7,336 | 7,679 | 1.047 | 持平 |
| 30 | woolworths.com.au | 6,488 | 6,795 | 1.047 | 持平 |
| 31 | allegro.pl | 16,533 | 17,214 | 1.041 | 持平 |
| 32 | udemy.com | 2,443 | 2,543 | 1.041 | 持平 |
| 33 | tesco.com | 9,944 | 10,314 | 1.037 | 持平 |
| 34 | temu.com | 61,748 | 63,130 | 1.022 | 持平 |
| 35 | michaels.com | 51 | 52 | 1.020 | 小样本 |
| 36 | totalwine.com | 662 | 671 | 1.014 | 持平 |
| 37 | hellofresh.fr | 224 | 226 | 1.009 | 持平 |
| 38 | stubhub.com | 1,301 | 1,306 | 1.004 | 持平 |
| 39 | getyourguide.com | 5,490 | 5,501 | 1.002 | 持平 |
| 40 | viovet.co.uk | 119 | 119 | 1.000 | 持平 |
| 41 | ihg.com | 3,026 | 3,012 | 0.995 | 持平 |
| 42 | rewe.de | 1,541 | 1,528 | 0.992 | 持平 |
| 43 | etsy.com | 30,183 | 29,766 | 0.986 | 持平 |
| 44 | whatnot.com | 1,684 | 1,648 | 0.979 | 持平 |
| 45 | parcel2go.com | 1,472 | 1,415 | 0.961 | 持平 |
| 46 | skyscanner.com | 2,096 | 2,013 | 0.960 | 持平 |
| 47 | petco.com | 865 | 806 | 0.932 | 持平 |
| 48 | kiwi.com | 1,777 | 1,589 | 0.894 | 低 ratio(被低估) |
| 49 | kohls.com | 1,877 | 1,667 | 0.888 | 低 ratio(被低估) |
| 50 | idmobile.co.uk | 382 | 336 | 0.880 | 低 ratio(被低估) |
| 51 | agoda.com | 8,812 | 7,651 | 0.868 | 低 ratio(被低估) |
| 52 | veepn.com | 52 | 45 | 0.865 | 小样本 |
| 53 | macys.com | 2,642 | 2,097 | 0.794 | 低 ratio(被低估) |
| 54 | fc-moto.de | 19 | 15 | 0.789 | 极小样本 |
| 55 | birminghamairport.co.uk | 315 | 58 | 0.184 | ⚠️ 异常暴跌 |
注:all.accor.com 和 skyscanner.net 在 SP journey 表中无记录(按 1.0 处理)。bestbuy.com(ratio=3.22)和 birminghamairport.co.uk(ratio=0.18)为异常值,需单独核查数仓口径。
商家级 ratio 而非全局 ratio:每个 domain 用自己的 SP 流量变化校准账面 delta,避免被全局平均 +0.7% 掩盖实际个体差异。
| domain | 4 月 | 5 月 | 账面 Δ | ratio | 校准基线 | 真增量 | 差异 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| etsy.com | $15,263 | $20,211 | +$4,948 | 0.988 | $15,080 | +$5,131 | +$183 |
| kiwi.com | $2,472 | $3,940 | +$1,469 | 0.879 | $2,173 | +$1,767 | +$298 |
| fc-moto.de | $2,619 | $3,598 | +$979 | 0.875 | $2,292 | +$1,306 | +$327 |
| doordash.com | $934 | $1,544 | +$610 | 0.855 | $799 | +$745 | +$135 |
| allegro.pl | $3,420 | $3,681 | +$261 | 1.039 | $3,553 | +$128 | −$133 |
| xfinity.com | $590 | $829 | +$239 | 1.370 | $808 | +$21 | −$218 |
| whatnot.com | $340 | $547 | +$207 | 0.941 | $320 | +$227 | +$20 |
| shopee.com.br | $240 | $391 | +$151 | 1.066 | $256 | +$135 | −$16 |
| plaud.ai | $42 | $188 | +$146 | 1.392 | $58 | +$130 | −$16 |
| parcel2go.com | $68 | $108 | +$40 | 0.958 | $65 | +$43 | +$3 |
| birminghamairport.co.uk ⚠️ | $336 | $370 | +$34 | 0.225 | $76 | +$294 | +$260 |
| A 合计 | $26,324 | $35,407 | +$9,083 | — | $25,480 | +$9,927 | +$844 |
| domain (country) | 4 月 | 5 月 | 账面 Δ | ratio | 真增量 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lowes.com (US) | $872 | $1,504 | +$631 | 1.047 | +$591 |
| macys.com (US) | $858 | $1,468 | +$610 | 0.802 | +$780 |
| shein.com (FR) | $323 | $657 | +$334 | 1.101 | +$301 |
| ihg.com (FR) | $0 | $330 | +$330 | — | +$330 |
| etsy.com (US) | $1,928 | $2,236 | +$308 | 0.988 | +$331 |
| michaels.com (US) | $309 | $613 | +$303 | 0.952 | +$319 |
| priceline.com (US) | $79 | $378 | +$298 | 1.543 | +$256 |
| adidas.com (US) | $169 | $393 | +$224 | 1.191 | +$192 |
| doordash.com (US) | $35 | $235 | +$200 | 0.855 | +$205 |
| shein.com (US) | $203 | $391 | +$188 | 1.101 | +$168 |
| bestbuy.com (US) ⚠️ | $24 | $189 | +$165 | 5.327 | +$61 |
| petco.com (US) | $47 | $197 | +$149 | 0.913 | +$154 |
| walgreens.com (US) | $177 | $275 | +$99 | 1.335 | +$39 |
| adidas.com (LT) | $2 | $59 | +$57 | 1.191 | +$57 |
| target.com (US) | $316 | $359 | +$43 | 1.029 | +$34 |
| 合计 | $5,342 | $9,284 | +$3,942 | — | +$4,018 |
| 模块 | 账面增量 | 流量校准后 | 差异 | 结论 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Part 1 新签商家(5 月全月,按订单去重) | +$13,172 | +$13,172 | 0 | 4 月基线为 0,无需打折;ROW_NUMBER 去重已修复 froya 双算 |
| Part 2 数据源 A(12 个上涨 · CB-only,去 doordash) | +$11,249 | ~+$10,900 | ~−$350 | etsy +$9,112 / kiwi +$2,602 主导 |
| Part 2 数据源 B(101 个上涨 · CB-only) | +$12,945 | ~+$12,500 | ~−$450 | 大量"全新"商家(forhers/walmart 等) |
| Part 2 数据源 C(197 涨 / 232 跌 · CB-only) | +$361 | ~+$300 | ~−$60 | 整体小幅净正,长尾商家有效 |
| Part 3 活动 18(TOP 15) | +$4,246 | +$4,018 | ~−$228 | 原报告 user 限定窗口口径 |
| Part 3 积分保障 | +$1,265 | ~+$1,100 | ~−$165 | agoda(0.83) 真增量高,但 allegro(1.04) 等略稀释 |
| Part 3 CBR 调整 | +$18,235 | ~+$17,500 | ~−$700 | 剔 stubhub 季节性后真增量 ~$10k |
| Part 3 Impact 静默 30min | +$5,072 | ~+$4,000 | ~−$1,072 | bestbuy(5.3) ratio 异常 + temu_fr/luxuryescapes 等 ratio > 1 |
| 合计(账面 vs 校准) | ~+$66,545 | ~+$60,000 | ~−$6,500 | 整体打折约 9% |
Part 1/2 数字已升级到 5 月全月 + CB-only 口径(A 中 shopee/cisalfa 全口径,doordash 已删);Part 3 各活动保持原报告窗口。
注:B/C/积分保障/CBR/Impact 等部分采用估算(按主要 TOP domain 校准 + 其他按全局 0.997 处理)。
对单个 domain 精算请使用公式:真增量 = 5月收入 − 4月收入 × sp_ratio。
-- 全局 CP SP 总用户数
SELECT
CASE WHEN pt BETWEEN '2026-04-01' AND '2026-04-30' THEN 'Apr_30d'
WHEN pt BETWEEN '2026-05-01' AND '2026-05-31' THEN 'May_31d' END AS period,
COUNT(DISTINCT guid) AS sp_users
FROM dws_log_sp_user_shopping_journey_detail_di
WHERE (pt BETWEEN '2026-04-01' AND '2026-04-30' OR pt BETWEEN '2026-05-01' AND '2026-05-31')
GROUP BY period;
-- 各 domain SP ratio
SELECT
domain,
COUNT(DISTINCT CASE WHEN pt BETWEEN '2026-04-01' AND '2026-04-30' THEN guid END) AS apr_sp,
COUNT(DISTINCT CASE WHEN pt BETWEEN '2026-05-01' AND '2026-05-31' THEN guid END) AS may_sp,
ROUND(COUNT(DISTINCT CASE WHEN pt BETWEEN '2026-05-01' AND '2026-05-31' THEN guid END) * 1.0 /
NULLIF(COUNT(DISTINCT CASE WHEN pt BETWEEN '2026-04-01' AND '2026-04-30' THEN guid END), 0), 3) AS sp_ratio
FROM dws_log_sp_user_shopping_journey_detail_di
WHERE pt BETWEEN '2026-04-01' AND '2026-05-31'
AND domain IN ( /* 上涨 domain 清单,见 §4.3 */ )
GROUP BY domain
ORDER BY sp_ratio DESC;